Rudar vs ND Slovan Ljubljana: match statistics

Rudar have won all 4 of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 3 goals and conceding just 0.5 per game. ND Slovan Ljubljana, meanwhile, have lost 3 of their 5 away matches, conceding an average of 2.6 goals and failing to keep a clean sheet in any of them. The hosts also create more chances: their home xG is 2.05, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.14; their advantage is further reflected in Rudar’s 6.5 shots on target per game against Slovan’s 3.2. Over their last 5 league matches, Rudar have won 3 times and scored 10 goals, while Slovan have recorded 2 wins and scored 6. Although the visitors sit higher in the table, 5th versus 7th, their away defensive record and lower chance creation point to a home win.

The strongest signal points to ND Slovan Ljubljana potentially failing to score: the visitors have not scored in 60% of their matches, while Rudar kept a clean sheet in 40% of games and conceded just 0.6 goals on average. The hosts, meanwhile, have a good chance of finding the net, averaging 1.4 goals scored, while the visitors concede 2.6 and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The last five matches do not rule out both teams scoring: Rudar conceded an average of 1.6 goals in those games, while the visitors' attacking xG was 1.46. Even so, BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of Rudar's matches and just 40% of Slovan's, so BTTS - No is marginally more likely. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 draw.

Rudar score an average of 1.4 goals at home, while ND Slovan Ljubljana concede 2.6 goals away, giving the hosts a clear chance to score at least twice. The visitors face a tougher task in attack: they have failed to score in 60% of their away matches, while Rudar have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their home games. Despite this imbalance, at least two goals were scored in 60% of Rudar’s home matches and 100% of Slovan’s away matches. The forecast of 1.85 goals for the hosts and 0.95 for the visitors gives a total of 2.80, making Over 1.5 a stronger pick than Over 2.5, for which the data offers a less conclusive signal.

The strongest scenario is Rudar leading at the break and holding that advantage until full time: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 3 of their 5 home matches, while Slovan trailed at the break in 3 of their 5 away games. Rudar average 1.2 goals scored before half-time at home, whereas the visitors concede an average of 1.6 goals in that period on the road, pointing to an early home advantage. Across the full match, Rudar average 2.2 points at home and have avoided defeat in all 5 of these matches, while Slovan have lost 3 of their 5 away games and concede an average of 2.6 goals in them. Rudar’s average of just 0.2 goals conceded at home after half-time also supports the prospect of them maintaining their lead. The signal is not unequivocal, however, as Rudar were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches overall, so turnaround scenarios also carry a notable probability.