Saburtalo vs Rustavi: match statistics

Saburtalo holds a clear advantage in home metrics: at home they concede on average 0.63 goals per match, have 50% clean sheets and remain unbeaten at home (Loss% 0), whereas Rustavi away concede 0.88 goals and have only 25% clean sheets. In attack the hosts average 11 shots with 4.38 on target and a 10% conversion rate, translating to 1.13 goals per home match; Rustavi away average 12 shots with 3.25 on target and a 6% conversion, yielding 0.75 goals per match. xG is nearly identical (Saburtalo xG for 1.48 vs Rustavi xG for 1.46), but Saburtalo converts chances into goals more efficiently and is less likely to finish scoreless (FTS 13% vs 38%), which favors the hosts in a low-scoring encounter. The visitors are in better recent form over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, PPG 2.0 vs Saburtalo 2-1-2, PPG 1.4), however their away profile is dominated by draws (63% draws away and only 13% wins), limiting their chances of a full victory. Based on this, I predict a home win (1) — expect a narrow, low-scoring success driven by solid home defense and superior efficiency in converting xG.

I back No for BTTS with a 65% probability versus 35% for BTTS - Yes, because Saburtalo’s defensive signals are stronger. Saburtalo averages 1.56 goals scored and concedes 0.78 goals this season, keeping a clean sheet in 56% of matches, which significantly reduces the opponent’s scoring chances. Rustavi averages only 0.75 goals per game this season despite an xG of 1.46 (a -0.71 difference), indicating underperformance with a low conversion rate of 6% and about 12 shots per game. Season BTTS rates are 44% for Saburtalo and 63% for Rustavi, but in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred for both sides at 40%, with Saburtalo conceding 1.2 goals on average in the last 5, while Rustavi scored 1.0 on average. Overall, Saburtalo’s advantage in clean sheets (56% vs 25% for Rustavi) and Rustavi’s lower goals average (0.75) outweigh the xG signal, hence the No BTTS pick.

I project 1.39 expected goals for Saburtalo and 1.05 for Rustavi, totaling 2.44 goals in the match. This figure is a compromise between xG (Saburtalo 1.28, Rustavi 1.46) and actual season averages (Saburtalo 1.56 goals, Rustavi 0.75 goals) as well as recent form over the last 5 matches (xG Saburtalo 1.68, Rustavi 1.24). With an average of 2.44, the probability of Over 1.5 goals is around 70%, Over 2.5 about 44%, while the raw model gave ~23% for Over 3.5, which I adjusted down to 15% due to historical rates (Over3.5: 11% for the home team, 0% for the away team). Additionally, Saburtalo has 56% clean sheets and better finishing efficiency (conversion 16% versus Rustavi 6%), which increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the match and justifies selecting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Saburtalo is clearly stronger in season metrics: they average 1.56 goals per match versus Rustavi’s 0.75 and win 78% of matches compared with only 13% for the visitors. At half-time the home side lead in 44% of matches and draw in 56% (goals at the break: Saburtalo 10 vs Rustavi 3, averages 0.78 vs 0.38), so many games are level after 45 minutes. In the second half Saburtalo scores an average of 1.22 goals, records 44% wins in second halves and averages 1.67 points gained after the break, while Rustavi have 0% wins in second halves, indicating the hosts’ ability to decide matches after half-time. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Saburtalo victory at full-time (X/1); combinations starting with “2/” are effectively ruled out, since Saburtalo were never trailing at the break in the data (trailingAtHTPercentage_home 0.0).