Saburtalo vs Samgurali: match statistics
Saburtalo vs Samgurali: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Saburtalo played against Samgurali in Erovnuli Liga (Georgia). The game was played on April 7, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Saburtalo has 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.75 points per game. Samgurali has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Saburtalo scores 0.75 goals per game and allows 0.50. Samgurali scores 1.00 and allows 1.20. Games in this league average 1.96 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 25% of Saburtalo's games and 60% of Samgurali's. The Over 2.5 rates are 25% and 40%, compared with league averages of 42% for BTTS and 46% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Saburtalo has the higher season xG average, 1.33 to 1.26 per game. Saburtalo takes 8.8 shots per game, while Samgurali takes 8.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Saburtalo leads at halftime in 0% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Samgurali leads at halftime in 20% and scores 0.80 after halftime.
When the teams score
Saburtalo's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (2 goals). For Samgurali, it is minutes 76-90+ (2 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Erovnuli Liga games average 1.96 goals. Both teams score in 42% of games, and 46% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 4 previous meetings were available. The record was 3 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Saburtalo, primarily due to a very strong home defense: 100% clean sheets and an average of 0.0 goals conceded per match at their stadium. The hosts average 4.5 shots on target and have an xG of 1.37 per home match, while Samgurali on the road records only 2.67 shots on target and an xG of 1.20, giving the hosts the edge in quality of created chances. Samgurali, however, have scored more goals this season (5 vs 3) and possess a slightly better recent form over the last five matches (1.6 points per game vs 1.4 for Saburtalo), so the visitors can be dangerous offensively. Considering Saburtalo’s low home finishing (0.5 goals per game on average and 50% of home matches without scoring) and Samgurali’s poorer away record (goal difference -2 and an average of 1.33 goals conceded on the road), I expect a low-scoring encounter with a minimal lean towards a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - Yes is more likely due to a mix of offensive and defensive signals: Saburtalo has a season BTTS of 100% and at home averages 1.5 goals scored vs 1.0 conceded, while Samgurali on the road has BTTS 33% and averages 0.67 goals scored. xG analysis shows both teams create real chances: Saburtalo xG is 1.43 versus Samgurali’s average xG conceded 1.25, and Samgurali xG is 1.20 versus Saburtalo’s average xG conceded 0.85, suggesting roughly 1.4 and 1.2 expected goals for home and away. Saburtalo averages 4.5 shots on target with a 17% conversion rate, and Samgurali 2.67 shots on target with a 7% conversion; this increases the likelihood of a home goal, though the visitors’ low efficiency limits their real chances. Note Saburtalo has only 3 goals scored and 2 conceded at home this season (small sample), while Samgurali has a 67% clean sheet rate away; additionally the last 5 matches show BTTS 40% for Saburtalo and 60% for Samgurali, which slightly favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this I forecast a 65% probability for BTTS - Yes and 35% for BTTS - No, recommending a Yes bet as the strongest signal from the available data.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I recommend an Over 1.5 goals bet: expected goals total 2.36 (1.34 for Saburtalo and 1.02 for Samgurali), which in a Poisson model yields about a 68% probability of at least 2 goals. Saburtalo averages 1.5 goals at home and has xG 1.43, while Samgurali as the away side concedes 1.25 xG on average to opponents, translating into 1.34 expected goals for the home team. Hosts record 4.5 shots on target per game versus Samgurali’s 2.67 and have a conversion rate of 17% vs 7%, so the quality of chances favors Saburtalo. Seasonal percentages confirm home-side pressure (100% of Saburtalo’s home matches over 1.5 goals vs 33% for Samgurali away), although Samgurali has 67% clean sheets on the road; the low absolute goal counts this season (Saburtalo 3 scored, Samgurali 6 conceded) indicate a small sample size, so greater weight should be given to xG and shot metrics. Over 2.5 delivers a weaker signal (~42% per the model), and Over 3.5 only ~21%, therefore the best and safest option is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Saburtalo has superior offensive metrics: on average 1.5 goals per match versus Samgurali’s 0.67, xG 1.43 vs 1.20, and 4.5 shots on target compared to 2.67, with shot conversion rates of 17% vs 7%. At Half-Time the home side average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (scoredAVGHT_home 0.0, concededAVGHT_home 1.0) and trailingAtTheBreakPercentage_home 100.0%, whereas Samgurali average 0.33 goals by Half-Time and HTPoints_away 4.0, indicating the visitors more frequently lead after 45 minutes. Saburtalo’s key strength emerges in the second half: the hosts score an average 1.5 goals after the break and do not concede (scored_2hg_avg_home 1.5, conceded_2hg_avg_home 0.0), have 100.0% success in second halves and average 3.0 points from those periods, suggesting a tendency to stage a turnaround. As a result the most likely scenario is Samgurali leading at Half-Time with Saburtalo winning at Full-Time (HT/FT 2/1). I therefore assign 40% to 2/1, 18% each to X/1 and 12% to 2/X as main alternatives, while scenarios with the home side leading at the break are judged unlikely (leadingAtHTPercentage_home 0.0%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Saburtalo | Samgurali | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 54% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Saburtalo is 9% better for: last-5 form.
1.75 pts / game - Saburtalo · 1.6 pts / game - Samgurali
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Samgurali is 33% better for: goals scored per game.
0.75 goals / game - Saburtalo · 1 goals / game - Samgurali
Saburtalo is 140% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.5 goals / game - Saburtalo · 1.2 goals / game - Samgurali
Saburtalo scores in 50% of games (2 of 4 meczów), while Samgurali keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 meczów).
Samgurali scores in 80% of games (4 of 5 meczów), while Saburtalo keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Saburtalo
Over / Under - Samgurali
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Saburtalo is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - Saburtalo · 0.8 pts / game - Samgurali
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Saburtalo - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Samgurali - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 20% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Average goals per game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 25% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 75% |
| No goal | 75% | 50% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Saburtalo
Samgurali
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Erovnuli Liga).
Teams vs league
| Saburtalo | Liga | Samgurali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.25 | 1.96 | ▲ 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 42% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 46% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 40% | • 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 25% | 58% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 67% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Saburtalo's perspective: 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Samgurali. Games average 1.50 goals, and both teams scored in 25% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
The Erovnuli Liga match finished Saburtalo 2:1 Samgurali. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Saburtalo and Samgurali?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Saburtalo won 3, Samgurali won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Saburtalo score 0.75 goals per game on average and Samgurali 1.00. The Erovnuli Liga average is 1.96 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Saburtalo's matches and 60% of Samgurali's.
What form are Saburtalo and Samgurali in?
Over the last 5 games Saburtalo have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Samgurali 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Saburtalo vs Samgurali: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.