Samsunspor vs Çorum Belediyespor: match statistics

Samsunspor have a slight home advantage, although neither team has recorded a win in their matches so far at home or away. The hosts average 64% possession and 13.5 shots per game, while Çorum Belediyespor have just 42% possession and 9.5 attempts away from home. The visitors are more clinical, scoring 2 goals away from home with a 21% shot-conversion rate, but their defense concedes as many as 4 goals per match and allows opponents an xG of 2.94. Samsunspor also have defensive issues, averaging 2.5 goals conceded at home and having kept no clean sheets, but the xG against them is significantly lower at 1.82. Both teams have earned 7 points? No—in their last five matches, they have identical records of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, so the home advantage is moderate, while an open game could produce goals at both ends.

The BTTS - Yes scenario is primarily supported by Çorum Belediyespor’s very poor defense: the visitors concede an average of 4.0 goals, have kept no clean sheets, and their average xG conceded stands at as high as 2.94. Samsunspor create plenty of chances at home, averaging 1.97 xG, 17.5 shots, and 5.5 shots on target per match, so their goal is highly likely. The visitors also have offensive arguments, having scored an average of 1.8 goals across their last five matches with 1.89 xG, while Samsunspor conceded an average of 1.2 goals and allowed 1.94 xG during this period. The main risk to this pick is the hosts’ season-long defensive record, with only 0.5 goals conceded on average, along with Samsunspor’s 20% BTTS rate in their last five matches. However, the scale of the visitors’ defensive problems and their current attacking output slightly shift the forecast toward BTTS: Yes.

Samsunspor creates chances worth an average of 1.97 xG at home, while Çorum allows opponents as much as 2.94 xG away from home and concedes an average of 4.0 goals per match. The hosts also record 17.5 shots, including 5.5 on target, while the visitors have kept no clean sheets. Çorum’s attack generates just 1.02 xG, and Samsunspor’s defense allows 0.75 xG, so the larger share of the projected 3.05 goals should belong to the home side. In Samsunspor’s last five matches, games produced an average of 2.8 goals, compared with 3.6 for Çorum, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 40% and 60% of those matches respectively. The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of the visitors’ very weak defense and the hosts’ attacking profile clearly increases the likelihood of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is Samsunspor leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts average 1.97 xG, while Çorum allow opponents as much as 2.94 xG. Samsunspor average 17.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, compared with just 9.5 attempts and 3.0 shots on target for the visitors. In the first halves, the hosts have averaged 1.0 goal and led in 50% of their matches, whereas the visitors have yet to score before the break and remained scoreless in 100% of such matches. The defensive difference is clear: Samsunspor concede only 0.5 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, while Çorum concede as many as 4.0 goals and have not kept a single clean sheet. The visitors can be more dangerous after the interval, averaging 2.0 goals in the second half, but they also concede 3.0, which supports the hosts maintaining their lead more than a turnaround.