San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn: match statistics

San Martín Tucumán exert greater control at home, averaging 57% possession, 11.17 shots and an xG of 1.40, while Deportivo Madryn generate only 1.00 xG on average away from home. The hosts concede just 0.67 goals per home match, with an xGA of 0.83, and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games. Deportivo Madryn have recently been in better points-scoring form, earning 1.6 points per match across their last five appearances compared with San Martín’s 1.0, but they fail to score in 42% of away matches. Both teams win 33% of their matches in the respective conditions, but the hosts have a more favorable home goal difference (+6 compared with the visitors’ +2 away from home). San Martín’s high 50% home draw rate limits confidence in the selection; however, their stronger defensive record and superior chance-creation quality support a narrow home win.

San Martín Tucumán has a high seasonal BTTS rate of 64%, while Deportivo Madryn records only 50%, and the league-wide average is just 41%. The visitors failed to score in 42% of their matches, which is the strongest indicator for a scenario in which at least one team remains scoreless. In their last 5 matches, Deportivo Madryn averaged 1.2 goals but recorded BTTS in only 40% of their games and conceded just 0.8 goals per match. San Martín creates more chances, with an xG of 1.42 over their last five matches compared with the opponents’ 1.04, so the hosts have a good chance of scoring. However, the visitors’ limited attacking potential and the league’s defensive character slightly favor BTTS - No.

San Martín Tucumán average 1.45 goals at home, while Deportivo Madryn concede 1.00 goals away from home; however, the visitors score only 1.17 goals per match themselves. The home side’s advantage is evident in chance creation: they average 11.55 shots compared with their opponents’ 7.17, while their average xG stands at 1.29 versus 1.00 for Deportivo Madryn. At the same time, the competition has a clearly low-scoring profile, averaging just 1.93 goals per match, with only 32% of games producing at least three goals. The 3.5 line is also strongly supported by both teams’ results: 91% of San Martín’s matches and 67% of Madryn’s ended with fewer than four goals, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick.

The strongest signal is a cautious opening: Deportivo Madryn were level at half-time in 67% of their matches, and in each of their last five games they went into the break with the score tied. During this period, the visitors neither scored nor conceded before half-time, while San Martín have conceded an average of just 0.27 goals in the opening 45 minutes. The hosts have a slight quality edge over the course of the match, with an average xG of 1.29 compared with the opponents’ 1.00, and 11.55 shots per game versus 7.17, but their recent run has produced only a 20% win rate. A full-time draw is also supported by the high frequency of points being shared: San Martín draw 36% of their matches, while Deportivo Madryn draw 42%, with the visitors having drawn 67% of their second halves. The X/X scenario is therefore the most likely, although following a goalless or closely contested first half, a home win remains slightly more realistic than the other outcomes.