San Telmo vs Deportivo Madryn: match statistics

Deportivo Madryn has a clear advantage in finishing and form — scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches and averages 1.6 points in those games, while San Telmo has scored just 1 goal in their last five and averages 0.6 points per match. At home San Telmo generates more chances: on average 13.63 shots and 4.88 on target with xG 1.75, but converts that into only 1.00 goal with a 7% conversion rate and fails to score in 50% of home matches. Deportivo away averages 8.13 shots and 3.38 on target, yet is much more efficient offensively — 1.38 goals per game with a 17% conversion rate and only 38% of matches without scoring. Both teams concede on average 1.25 goals per game, so the key difference is finishing efficiency and recent form (7 vs 1 goals in the last five). Given Madryn’s superior shooting efficiency and clearly better points haul in the last five matches, I favor Deportivo Madryn to win narrowly.

Both teams have high BTTS figures this season: San Telmo 57% and Deportivo Madryn 63%, well above the league average of 39%. Deportivo Madryn concedes a lot of xG (xG against 1.75) and in the last 5 matches has BTTS 60% with an average of 1.4 goals scored, so they often both score and concede. Counterpoint is San Telmo’s form — in the last 5 matches BTTS only 20% and an average of 0.2 goals scored, while seasonally they concede 0.71 goals on average and have 29% clean sheets, which reduces the likelihood of them scoring. San Telmo nevertheless creates more chances (avg. 11.57 shots and xG 1.31), and Madryn attempts 8.13 shots with a 17% conversion, so despite the hosts’ poorer form I project a moderate 60% for BTTS - Yes and 40% for No.

The xG-based model projects 1.31 xG for San Telmo and 1.03 xG for Deportivo, with defending xG conceded of 1.28 (San Telmo) and 1.75 (Deportivo), yielding expected goals of 1.53 for the home side and 1.16 for the visitors, total 2.69. With lambda=2.69, a Poisson distribution gives probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) around 75%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) around 50%, and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) around 28%. Seasonal indicators confirm this signal: San Telmo has 71% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Deportivo 63%, and both teams show a high rate of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5 at 86% and 88%) and BTTS 57% vs 63%. Additionally, San Telmo averages 11.57 shots per game compared to Deportivo’s 8.13, and last 5-match xG is 1.22 vs 1.03, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

The most likely HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). I expect a draw at the break due to low first-half scoring averages: San Telmo scores on average 0.71 goals by half-time, Deportivo Madryn 0.88, and in San Telmo’s last 5 matches they registered 0% wins and averaged only 0.2 first-half goals versus Madryn’s 1.0; additionally the half-time draw rate is 43% for the home side and 50% for the visitors. A full-time draw is also a strong scenario – San Telmo have a 43% draw rate across the season and 60% draws in their last 5 matches, while Madryn have 40% wins in their last 5, but their goals often come late (4 goals in minutes 76–90 and a second-half average of 1.2 in the last 5). Although San Telmo possess higher attacking xG (1.31 vs. 1.03) and more shots on average (11.57 vs. 8.13), the hosts’ poor form (0 wins in the last 5) and the high prevalence of draws favor the X/X outcome.