Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus: match statistics

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are unbeaten this season, with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw, and have scored 13 goals while collecting 13 points from a possible 15 in their last five matches. Nagoya Grampus have lost 4 of their previous 5 games, conceding 9 goals during that period, and are averaging just 0.6 points per match. At home, Hiroshima score an average of 2 goals with an xG of 2.15, registering 19 shots and 7.5 shots on target per game, while Nagoya manage just 1 shot on target away from home. The visitors’ defense concedes an average of 2 goals on the road, allows opponents an xG of 1.79 and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts are also significantly more solid defensively, conceding just 0.5 goals per home game, making them clear favorites to win.

The BTTS tip is supported by the fact that Nagoya had both teams score in 100% of their matches so far, while this figure still stands at 80% across their last five games. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, while Nagoya have conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game and as many as 1.8 goals across their last five appearances. Hiroshima are clear favorites to score: they create an average of 2.37 xG, record 9.0 shots on target per match, and have scored an average of 2.6 goals in their last five games. The risk to the “Yes” scenario comes from the hosts’ strong recent defensive form, having conceded just 0.6 goals across five matches, although Nagoya generated 1.80 xG during this period and scored an average of 1.2 goals. The combination of the visitors’ weak defense and both sides’ consistent attacking potential provides a moderately strong signal for both teams to score.

Sanfrecce have averaged 2.6 goals and created chances worth 2.11 xG in their last 5 matches, while Nagoya have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game over the same period. The hosts average 19.5 shots, including 9 on target, clearly surpassing Nagoya’s 13 attempts and just 1 shot on target. Nagoya’s matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 100% of their appearances so far, while 80% of their last five games ended with at least three goals. Sanfrecce have also failed to keep a clean sheet, and Nagoya have conceded in every match, further supporting the prospect of at least two goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the projected total of 3.20 goals provides a clear margin above this line, with less risk than Over 2.5.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima were leading at half-time in 100% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before the break and conceding just 0.4. Over the same period, Nagoya scored only 0.4 goals in the first halves and took a lead at the break in just 20% of their matches. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.37 compared with Nagoya’s 1.28, while their number of shots on target is as high as 9.0 versus 1.0. Hiroshima are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 80% of them, whereas the visitors have lost 80% of their games and conceded an average of 1.8 goals. After the break, the hosts still look solid, having scored an average of 1.2 goals and allowed opponents just 0.2 in their last five appearances, which most strongly supports the HT/FT scenario of a Hiroshima lead at half-time followed by a home win.