São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP: match statistics

São Bernardo have the home advantage in terms of chance creation, averaging 13.55 shots and 4.09 shots on target per match, compared with Botafogo SP’s 11.18 and 2.82 away from home. The hosts score 1.18 goals per home game, but as many as 45% of their home matches end in a draw, and they have won just once in their last five outings. Botafogo SP have been more consistent recently, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat in their last five matches; however, they score only 0.64 goals away from home and fail to score in 64% of their away games. The visitors are slightly more effective defensively in terms of away goals conceded, averaging 0.91 compared with São Bernardo’s 1.18 at home, which further points to a tight game. With the hosts’ xG at 1.38 and the visitors’ xG at 1.20, a draw appears the most likely outcome, probably in a low-scoring match.

São Bernardo have a very strong attacking argument: they score an average of 1.90 goals, create 1.54 xG and record 5.1 shots on target per match, while Botafogo SP concede an average of 1.55 xG. However, the hosts concede an average of 1.20 goals, rising to 2.0 goals per match across their last five fixtures, with goals scored by both teams in 100% of those matches. Botafogo SP score just 0.64 goals per game over the full season and failed to score in 64% of their matches, clearly supporting the BTTS - No scenario. However, their current form is better: they have averaged 1.8 goals in their last five matches, with BTTS occurring in 60% of them. The combination of São Bernardo’s strong home scoring record and the hosts’ recent defensive instability provides a slightly stronger signal for BTTS - Yes than for another No Goal performance from Botafogo SP.

São Bernardo average 1.9 goals per match and register 5.1 shots on target, while Botafogo SP concede just 0.91 goals per game away from home. The visitors have very limited attacking efficiency: they score an average of 0.64 goals, hit the target 2.82 times, and have failed to score in 64% of their matches. The full-season profile clearly supports a lower-scoring outcome, as 91% of Botafogo SP matches and 70% of São Bernardo matches finished with Under 3.5 goals. Their last five outings were more open, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 80% of the home side’s matches and 60% of the visitors’ matches, but their combined xG still points to a result closer to 2.55 goals than four. Therefore, Under 3.5 offers the greatest edge, as it requires no more than three goals, supported by the visitors’ solid defensive record and inconsistent attack.

São Bernardo have a clear home advantage: they average 1.9 goals per match, compared with Botafogo SP’s 0.64 goals in away fixtures, and win 50% of their matches versus 18% for the visitors. The hosts were leading at the break in 5 of their 10 home matches and average 0.9 goals scored before half-time, while Botafogo score just 0.27 first-half goals away from home. The visitors drew at half-time in as many as 82% of their away matches, so a level score after 45 minutes remains a serious alternative; however, São Bernardo average 5.1 shots on target per match compared with the opponents’ 2.82. After the break, the hosts still have strong arguments, averaging 1.0 goal, while Botafogo fail to score in 64% of their away matches. The most likely scenario is therefore São Bernardo leading at half-time and maintaining their victory through to full-time, although the visitors’ high rate of first-half draws limits the hosts’ advantage over the draw/home-win combination.