São Bernardo vs Ceará: match statistics

São Bernardo has a clear advantage in home metrics: they score on average 1.0 goal per home match with xG 1.33 and 4 shots on target per game, while Ceará as an away side averages just 0.67 goals with xG 1.19 and 2.89 shots on target. Hosts concede 0.9 goals on average at home versus 1.22 conceded by Ceará away, and the home goal difference is +1 compared to -5 for the visitors on the road. In the last 5 matches São Bernardo have scored 4 goals and registered 0 wins, similarly Ceará have 1 goal and 0 wins, indicating poor form — both teams average 0.4 points per game over the last 5. Additionally the hosts have a lower “did not score” rate (FTS 30% vs 44%) and higher shot conversion (8% vs 6%), which increases the likelihood of at least one goal. Given superior home xG (1.33 vs 1.19), more shots on target (4 vs 2.89) and a lower average of goals conceded (0.9 vs 1.22), I assign a higher probability of victory to São Bernardo.

Ceará has BTTS in only 20% of its last 5 matches and scores on average 0.2 goals per match (season 0.67), indicating very poor attacking efficiency from the away side. São Bernardo shows a seasonal BTTS of 56% and 60% in the last 5, but their goal average is 1.11 for the season and 0.8 in the last 5, while they concede 1.11 seasonally and 1.4 in the last 5 — hosts concede more frequently but not necessarily to Ceará. xG favors São Bernardo (xG_for 1.76 vs 1.19 for Ceará), and Ceará has a higher xG_against (1.49 vs 1.16 for São Bernardo), suggesting the hosts create more chances while the visitors fail to convert them. Shot data confirms the difference in chance creation: São Bernardo records 5.11 shots on target versus 2.89 for Ceará and has a conversion rate of 7% against 6%, giving the hosts an edge in creating opportunities. Considering the high percentage of clean sheets in the league (63%) and Ceará’s poor scoring form, the "No" (no BTTS / No Goal) scenario appears stronger.

Expected goals are 2.81 (São Bernardo 1.63, Ceará 1.18), calculated as the average of attack xG and opposition xG ((1.76+1.49)/2 = 1.63; (1.19+1.16)/2 = 1.18). A total of 2.81 in a Poisson model yields roughly a 77% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), which aligns with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 56% for São Bernardo and 89% for Ceará. I estimate Over 2.5 at about 53% (Poisson P≥3), above the league average Over 2.5 of 42% and close to São Bernardo’s 44%, but in contrast to only 11% for Ceará, so the signal is moderate. Over 3.5 has a much lower probability (~31%) and seasonal Over 3.5 rates are just 11% (São Bernardo) and 0% (Ceará); therefore the strongest and safest pick is Over 1.5. Additionally, São Bernardo averages 5.11 shots on target versus Ceará’s 2.89, and both teams have a high share of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5 89%), which further supports the Over bet.

São Bernardo has a clear first-half edge: they led at the break in 4 of their matches so far (44%) and average 0.78 goals by half-time versus 0.11 for Ceará. The advantage is supported by xG of 1.76 for São Bernardo against 1.19 for Ceará and 5.11 shots on target per game for the home side versus 2.89 for the visitors, indicating higher-quality chances. Over the full match the hosts average 1.33 points per game compared to 0.78 for the visitors and win 33% of matches while Ceará wins only 11%, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. A turnaround risk exists because Ceará scores more in second halves (0.56 goals vs 0.33 for São Bernardo) and the hosts conceded 4 goals in the 46–60 minute window, so a draw or comeback is possible.