São João Ver vs AD Marco 09: match statistics

AD Marco 09 sit 2nd, while São João Ver are 9th, and in their last five matches the visitors have collected 10 points through 3 wins and a draw, compared with the hosts’ 5 points. Marco 09 scored 8 goals during this period—twice as many as São João Ver, who managed just 4 and lost 2 of their five matches. The hosts average 60% possession, but this translates into just 1.05 xG and 2 shots on target per home game. The visitors create few chances away from home, averaging 0.87 xG, but defend more effectively, allowing 0.88 xG compared with São João Ver’s 1.18. Both teams lost their only previous match in the respective home and away roles, so Marco 09’s advantage is primarily based on current form and their superior goalscoring record.

The signal for both teams to score is supported by the fact that AD Marco 09 had BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, while this figure stood at 60% in each of the teams’ last five games. The visitors have recently averaged 1.6 goals per match with an xG of 1.33, while São João Ver conceded 1.2 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.28. The hosts have averaged 2.0 goals per game this season, while AD Marco 09 have kept no clean sheets and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. A factor lowering confidence is São João Ver’s strong defensive record this season, with only 0.5 goals conceded per match and 50% clean sheets; however, the visitors’ current attacking data supports them finding the net. The BTTS scenario is therefore marginally more likely than the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

São João Ver’s last five matches produced an average of 2.0 goals, while AD Marco 09’s matches averaged 2.6 goals, pointing to a moderate rather than an extremely open scenario. The home side scored just 0.8 goals per game during this period, compared with 1.6 for the visitors, which is why AD Marco 09 accounts for the larger share of the goals forecast. The qualitative data also do not suggest a high-scoring game: the average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.07 for the hosts and 1.33 for the visitors, or approximately 2.4 combined. Neither team has had a match with at least 4 goals in the current competition, while in both cases 100% of matches finished Under 3.5 goals. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore offers the clearest edge, as the projected total of 2.27 goals leaves a clear margin below the four-goal threshold.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and an AD Marco 09 win after 90 minutes: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while São João Ver have won only 1 of 5. The hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while their first-half average is just 0.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. AD Marco 09 led after 45 minutes in 60% of that run, but it is equally significant that they average 1.0 goals after the break, compared with 0.4 for São João Ver and 0.8 goals conceded by the hosts. The seasonal home statistics favor São João Ver, who have won both of their home matches so far, but the sample is very small and the visitors’ current form is clearly superior: 2.0 points per match compared with 1.0. The low number of goals before half-time, recorded in 80% of the visitors’ recent matches, further strengthens the scenario of a cautious opening followed by a second-half turnaround in favor of the away side.