Seattle Sounders vs New York RB: match statistics

Seattle Sounders have greater attacking potential at home, averaging 1.6 goals with an xG of 1.69, while New York RB average 1.4 goals and an xG of 1.54 away from home. The hosts also produce more shots per match (14.6 vs. 13.2) and hit the target more frequently, averaging 5.5 shots on target compared with 5.2. The visitors’ key weakness is their away defensive record: they concede 2.3 goals per match, allow chances worth an average of 1.67 xG, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in every game. Seattle’s form is nevertheless concerning, as they have scored just 5 goals in their last five matches and have not won any of them. New York RB have also lost 3 of their last 5 games and conceded 9 goals during that period. Home advantage and the visitors’ vulnerable defense marginally favor a Seattle win, although the match should be closely contested, with both teams likely to score.

The signal for both teams to score is strong, as New York RB has recorded BTTS in 90% of its matches this season, while Seattle Sounders stands at 58%, compared with the league average of 63%. The visitors have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 2.30 goals per match, which significantly increases Seattle’s chances of scoring despite averaging only 1.0 goal scored across their last five matches. Seattle also lacks defensive stability: they have conceded 9 goals in their last five outings, or 1.8 per match, while their average xG against is as high as 2.20. Both teams recorded BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, while New York RB has produced an average of 1.48 xG during this period and averages 5.2 shots on target per match across the season. The risk to this selection comes from Seattle failing to score in 33% of matches, but the visitors’ weak defense and the high rates of both teams scoring point more clearly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The match profile points toward goals, with Seattle conceding an average of 1.92 goals per game and New York RB as many as 2.30. Both teams regularly create chances: Seattle’s average xG is 1.62, compared with 1.54 for the visitors, while they register 4.58 and 5.20 shots on target per game, respectively. In their last five appearances, both teams conceded 1.8 goals per game, and both sides scored in 80% of each team’s matches. At least two goals were scored in 83% of Seattle’s games and in all of New York RB’s matches, while MLS averages 3.2 goals per game. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with the lower attacking efficiency seen in recent weeks, both teams’ defenses clearly increase the likelihood of surpassing this low line.

New York RB have a slightly stronger profile in the opening phase: they held a lead at the break in 40% of their matches, compared with just 33% for Seattle, while the hosts were level at half-time in as many as 60% of their last five games. The visitors average 5.2 shots on target per match, compared with Seattle’s 4.58, and their xG stands at 1.54, while Seattle’s xG against is 1.43. Seattle do, however, have attacking arguments after the break, scoring an average of 0.83 goals in second halves, while New York RB concede as many as 1.5 goals after half-time. Despite this, the hosts are on a very poor run without a win in their last five matches and have scored just 1.0 goal per game during that spell, whereas New York RB have won 1 of their last 5 such fixtures. The most likely scenario is for the visitors to lead at half-time and hold on to their advantage, although New York RB’s high average of 3.7 total goals per match increases the risk of a late turnaround.