Septemvri Sofia vs Arda: match statistics

Septemvri Sofia has a 5-match record of 3 wins and 2 draws (3-2-0), scoring 6 goals (1.2 per match) and conceding 3 (0.6 per match), yielding 2.2 points per game. Arda’s last 5 matches show a 3-1-1 record, with 9 goals scored (1.8 per match) and 5 conceded (1.0 per match), averaging 2.0 points per game, and they sit 1st in the table versus Septemvri’s 12th. Arda demonstrates clearer attacking strength (9 vs 6 goals in the last 5, 1.8 vs 1.2 per match), while Septemvri has the better defense in that period (3 conceded vs 5). The hosts are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, which is an advantage at home, but the superior league position and higher scoring average favor the visitors. Based on this, I predict a narrow Arda victory, with a moderate probability of a draw.

In the last 5 matches Septemvri had BTTS in 60% of cases (3 of 5), while Arda in 40% (2 of 5), yielding a baseline near 50% with a slight home advantage. Arda shows clearer attacking strength: 9 goals scored in the last 5 matches (1.8 per match) versus Septemvri's 6 goals (1.2 per match), while Arda concedes on average 1.0 goal vs 0.6 for the home side. xG confirms a goal-scoring outlook from both sides — Septemvri xG_for 1.41 with xG_against 1.19, Arda xG_for 1.32 with xG_against 1.12, meaning both teams generate roughly ~1.1–1.3 xG and are capable of scoring. In absolute numbers it's 6:3 (Septemvri) and 9:5 (Arda) goals scored/conceded in the last 5, which together suggest both sides have realistic chances to hit the net. Considering these indicators and form (Septemvri 'dwwdw', Arda 'dlwww'), I favor BTTS - Yes at an estimated 65% vs 35% for No.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Septemvri Sofia scores an average of 1.2 goals, Arda 1.8 goals, totalling 3.0 goals per match. xG over the last 5 fixtures is 1.41 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors (total 2.73), while modeled expected goals are 1.33 for Septemvri and 1.51 for Arda (total 2.84). Arda had 60% of matches over 2.5 goals in the last 5, whereas Septemvri only 20%, and the goal tally in the last 5 is 6 for the home team and 9 for the visitors, which supports a higher-scoring scenario. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I estimate 95% probability); Over 2.5 also has significant support (72%), while Over 3.5 I assess at 34% due to Septemvri limiting concessions to 0.6 goals in the last 5 matches.

I select the 1/1 scenario (home team leads at Half-Time and wins Full-Time) because form statistics favor Septemvri. Septemvri led at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches (40%) versus 1 of 5 (20%) for Arda, and the home side have not recorded a defeat in their last five fixtures (0% losses) while Arda have lost 1 of 5 (20%). Septemvri average 1.2 goals scored and concede 0.6 per match, compared with Arda’s 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, suggesting a superior defensive profile for the hosts and a higher probability of maintaining a lead. At Half-Time the hosts average 0.4 goals versus Arda’s 0.6, but they accumulate more points by the break (an average of 1.6 points at Half-Time versus 1.2 for Arda), whereas Arda are more active after the interval (averaging 1.2 second-half goals versus 0.8 for the hosts). Therefore, despite the risk of a turnaround, the hosts’ unbeaten run and the lack of defeats incline the selection toward 1/1.