Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu: match statistics

Shandong Luneng are showing clearly superior form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring 9 goals in the process, while Sichuan Jiuniu have recorded 2 wins and just 5 goals during the same period. At home, the hosts average 2.33 goals per match with an xG of 1.87, whereas the visitors score only 0.83 goals away from home with an xG of 1.08. The difference is also evident in chance creation: Shandong average 16.58 shots and 6.33 shots on target, compared with Sichuan’s 9.42 attempts and 3.5 shots on target. The visitors’ away defense concedes an average of 2.25 goals, have kept no clean sheets and have lost 75% of such matches. The hosts also rarely keep a clean sheet, but their advantage in possession—55% to 42%—and greater attacking quality clearly point towards a home victory.

Shandong Luneng have a BTTS rate of 54%, while Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 50%, providing a moderately positive signal for goals from both sides. The hosts are clearly more effective in attack, averaging 1.77 goals from 1.46 xG, while the visitors concede as many as 2.25 goals per match and have kept no clean sheets. Sichuan’s chances of scoring are also realistic, as Shandong have allowed opponents 1.75 xG across their last five matches, despite conceding an average of 1.2 goals during that period. However, the visitors’ scoring form remains a limitation: they average 0.83 goals per season, and failed to score in 50% of their matches, which is why the BTTS - Yes edge is only slight. Shandong’s last five matches produced BTTS in 60% of cases, which, combined with the visitors’ weak defense, marginally shifts the prediction towards a scenario in which both teams score.

Shandong average 1.77 goals per match, while Sichuan concede as many as 2.25, clearly strengthening the prospect of at least two goals. The hosts average 13.77 shots and 4.62 shots on target, compared with 9.42 and 3.50 for the visitors, while their xG of 1.46 is supported by the opponents’ weak defensive xG of 1.82. In their last five matches, Shandong have scored 9 goals, while Sichuan have conceded 7, so current form also points towards an open game. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 69% of the hosts’ matches and 83% of the visitors’ matches, while both teams have scored in every match of the season at a minimum threshold of 0.5. The case for Over 1.5 is therefore clearly stronger than for the more volatile 2.5-goal line.

Shandong Luneng have a clear quality advantage: they score an average of 1.77 goals per match, compared with just 0.83 for Sichuan Jiuniu, while the visitors concede as many as 2.25 goals per game. The hosts have won 46% of their matches this season, whereas Sichuan have lost 75%, strongly supporting the scenario of a home win at full time. Before the break, Shandong average 0.77 goals scored and 0.46 conceded, while the visitors score just 0.50 goals and allow opponents 1.08. In their last five matches, Shandong were leading at half-time in 40% of cases, while Sichuan failed to lead at the break in any of them and drew at half-time in as many as 80%. If the hosts take the lead, their second-half advantage also looks solid: they score an average of 1.00 goal after the break, while Sichuan concede 1.17. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is 1/1.