Shire Endaselassie vs Ethiopia Bunna: match statistics

Ethiopia Bunna are favorites on paper: they sit 6th versus Shire Endaselassie’s 18th and have scored 34 goals this season compared to the hosts’ 19. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 7 goals while the hosts only 2, with an average points return of 1.2 for Ethiopia Bunna versus 1.0 for Shire. Offensive metrics underline the visitors’ edge: on average 6.85 shots and 2.85 on target per match and 54% possession away, versus 5.27 shots, 2.13 on target and 45% possession for the hosts; xG is 1.13 for the visitors vs 0.93 for the hosts. The hosts do have a defensive asset at home — conceding only 0.67 goals per match and keeping clean sheets in 47% of home games, while the visitors concede 0.8 goals away; at the same time Shire fail to score in 47% of their home matches versus 33% of such games for the visitors, which increases the probability of a low-scoring draw. Considering the superiority in shots, xG and total goals scored (34 vs 19), I tip an away win.

Seasonal xG and defensive metrics give an almost neutral signal: computed xG for the home side is ~1.18 (xG_for_home 1.26 vs xG_against_away 1.10), and for the away side ~1.22 (xG_for_away 1.13 vs xG_against_home 1.31), translating to estimated probabilities of the home team scoring ≈69% and the away team ≈71%, i.e. BTTS around 49%. However, form over the last 5 matches favors No BTTS: the home team has only 20% BTTS in the last 5 and averages 0.4 goals, while the away team has 80% BTTS and averages 1.4 goals; using last 5 xG (0.74 for home and 1.31 for away) yields roughly a 46% chance for BTTS. Additionally, the season clean sheet rate for the away team is 47% vs 19% for the home team, meaning the away side keeps a clean sheet in nearly half of matches, which reduces the probability of Goal/Goal. Season-long BTTS rates are mixed (home 63% vs away 40% with a league average of 41%), so the long-term signal remains inconclusive. Considering balanced xG (~49%), the home side’s weaker attack in the last 5 (0.4 goals) and the high away clean sheet rate (47%), I give a final probability of 48% for BTTS - Yes and 52% for No Goal and recommend the tip: No.

I expect a total of 2.35 goals: home 1.08, away 1.27. Home season xG is 1.26 but has dropped to 0.74 over the last 5 matches, while Ethiopia Bunna concede 1.10 xG on average; weighting season and form yields an estimate of 1.08 goals for Shire. Ethiopia Bunna have season xG 1.13 and last 5 matches xG 1.31, and the hosts concede 1.31 xG against them, which raises the away estimate to 1.27. A Poisson model for a sum of 2.35 gives P(>1.5) ≈ 68%, consistent with season over-1.5 rates: 69% for home and 53% for away (avg 61%). Season over-2.5 rates are lower (38%/33%) and Poisson indicates over-2.5 ≈ 42%, while over-3.5 is around 21%, so lines 2.5 and 3.5 look less attractive. Additionally, average shots on target 3.0 vs 2.85 and conversion rates 15% vs 13% support a moderate goal tally; therefore the strongest signal is the Over 1.5 bet.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2) — I assigned 30% probability to this outcome. A draw at the break is likely because the home team drew at half-time in 44% of matches and the away team in 73%, yielding a high share of HT draws (I forecast a 60% chance of a draw at the break). The home side scores on average 0.81 goals by half-time versus 0.47 for the visitors, but after the interval the visitors show better numbers: they score an average of 0.53 goals in the second half versus 0.38 for the hosts and concede less (0.33 vs 0.63). Additionally, the visitors have superior season-long full-match results — they win 40% of matches versus 31% for the hosts, and the season percentage of full wins is 33% for the visitors vs 19% for the hosts — this supports a turnaround after half-time. Therefore, alongside the 30% for X/2 I assigned 22% to X/X and smaller shares to the remaining variants (including 10% for 1/1 and 10% for 2/X) to reflect the high incidence of first-half draws and the visitors’ advantage after the break.