Shire Endaselassie vs Hadiya Hosaena: match statistics

Hadiya Hosaena holds a slight edge over Shire Endaselassie: they sit 12th vs 17th, have won 10 matches this season vs 8, and have scored 28 goals vs the hosts’ 20. In the last 5 fixtures both teams have scored 3 goals and share an identical record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, as well as the same average points per game 1.6, indicating comparable recent form. The difference appears in finishing efficiency and goal occurrence: Shire at home averages 0.69 goals and fail to score in 44% of matches, whereas Hadiya away average 0.75 goals and fail to score in only 31% of matches. xG slightly favors the visitors (xG for 0.98 vs 0.92), and conversion 15% vs 14% shows better finishing from Hadiya with nearly identical xG against (1.28 vs 1.27). Considering higher season goal totals, superior conversion and lower share of matches without a goal for the visitors, I back an Hadiya Hosaena win, though I expect a tight contest.

I back 'No Goal' (no BTTS) with 70% probability versus 30% for 'BTTS - Yes'. Hadiya Hosaena concedes on average 0.69 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of games, while the visitors’ seasonal BTTS rate is only 31%, strongly favoring no both-teams-to-score. Shire Endaselassie scores 0.94 and concedes 1.24 per match; hosts have a season BTTS of 65%, but in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred for both teams in only 20% of games. xG shows moderate offensive chances: home xG 1.05 vs away xG 0.98, with xG against the visitors at 1.28—higher than their actual 0.69 conceded—indicating effective defending. Additionally, the league averages 1.79 goals per match and BTTS in 41% of fixtures, and low on-target shots (2.24 and 1.88) plus a 15% conversion rate limit the probability of mutual scoring.

Based on xG: the home side has xG_for 1.05 while the away defense concedes xG 1.28 — average (1.05+1.28)/2 ≈ 1.17 goals for the home team; similarly the away team has xG_for 0.98 and the home defense concedes 1.35 => (0.98+1.35)/2 ≈ 1.17, totaling ≈ 2.34 goals. The home team records 76% of matches over 1.5 goals, the away team 38% — these historical rates combined with the projected 2.34 goals provide a strong signal for Over 1.5 (I estimate 78% for Over1.5 vs 22% Under1.5). On the 2.5 line the home side has 41% Over2.5, the away side 13% (base average ~27%), but xG=2.34 raises the chance of Over2.5 to about 42% (Under2.5 58%). BTTS and defensive signals are mixed: home BTTS 65%, but the away side keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches; additionally SOT 2.24 vs 1.88 and total shots 6.12 vs 5.13 with a 15% conversion indicate the home team creates more chances, which supports Over 1.5 more than Over 2.5/3.5. In summary, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (play: Over at 1.5); Over 2.5 (42%) and Over 3.5 (11%) are less convincing.

At Half-Time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home team ended the first half level in 59% of matches and the away team in 56% (average ~57.5%), while the home side led at the break in only 6% of games and the visitors in 19%. The Full-Time result favors Hadiya Hosaen — the away team’s average points per match are 1.63 versus 0.94 for the hosts, and the visitors win 44% of matches compared to 18% for the home side. Additionally, the away team look stronger defensively at the break: they concede an average of 0.38 goals by Half-Time versus 0.71 for the hosts and keep a clean sheet at Half-Time in 63% of games versus 41% for the home team, which makes it easier for them to secure the match after the interval. Taking this into account I assign the highest probability to the Half-Time draw / Full-Time away win scenario (X/2 26%), followed by draw/draw (X/X 22%) and away win when leading at the break (2/2 19%), while 1/1 is rated low at 9% due to the hosts’ poor finishing.