Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Czarni Połaniec: match statistics

Czarni Połaniec have the better record over their last five matches, winning 2 games and averaging 1.8 goals, while Siarka have failed to win during this period. Although the hosts have also scored 9 goals in five matches, their defense has conceded as many as 13, an average of 2.6 per game. The Połaniec side conceded 9 goals over the same period—4 fewer—and averaged 1.2 points per match compared with Siarka’s 0.4. The start of the season also slightly favors the visitors, who won their only league match so far 3:1, while Siarka drew 1:1. With similar attacking efficiency, the hosts’ recent defensive struggles increase Czarni’s chances of securing a win.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS comes from the teams’ recent matches: both Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Czarni Połaniec recorded a Goal/Goal result in 100% of their previous five fixtures. During this period, Siarka averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.6, while Czarni scored and conceded 1.8 goals per match. Their attacking potential is supported by similar xG averages: 1.09 for the home side and 1.04 for the visitors, with xG conceded standing at 1.75 and 1.27, respectively. The league-wide BTTS average is 67%, meaning the current form of both teams is clearly more conducive to goals at both ends. Seasonal data is very limited and inconsistent; however, the five-match streak and Siarka’s weak defense significantly strengthen the scenario in which both teams score at least once.

In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Siarka conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game, which significantly increases the visitors’ attacking potential. Over the same period, Czarni conceded an average of 1.8 goals, meaning the hosts should have a realistic chance of scoring at least once. Both teams scored and conceded in 100% of their last five matches, with Czarni’s games finishing over 2.5 goals in 100% of cases, compared with 60% for Siarka. The estimated xG stands at 1.09 for Siarka and 1.04 for Czarni, while the hosts’ defensive weakness, rated at 1.75 xG conceded per match, supports a scenario with at least two goals. The safest signal remains Over 1.5, as it combines the high goal-scoring consistency of both sides with lower risk than the 2.5 and 3.5 lines.

Siarka have tended to start matches strongly: in their last five games, they were leading at the break in 50% of cases, while Czarni were trailing at half-time as often as 75% of the time. The hosts averaged 1.75 goals before the break, clearly more than Czarni’s 0.50, supporting the scenario of Siarka holding the advantage after 45 minutes. However, the picture reverses after the interval: Siarka scored just 0.25 goals and conceded 1.75, whereas Czarni averaged 1.00 goal scored and 0.75 conceded. The visitors also averaged 1.2 points per game across their last five matches, compared with Siarka’s 0.4, which is why the most likely outcome is a Czarni turnaround after half-time and an away win at full-time.