Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wisłoka Dębica: match statistics

Siarka Tarnobrzeg possesses a clear offensive edge: 47 goals this season versus Wisłoka's 24. At home they average 2.33 goals per match with 6.33 shots on target and a 21% conversion rate, while the visitors average 1.42 goals away, 4.17 shots on target and 11% efficiency. Wisłoka, however, defends well on the road — conceding just 0.92 goals per away match with average xG against of 1.25, and in their last 5 fixtures the visitors have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (2.0 points per match). Siarka’s home offensive xG is 1.66 with xG against 1.70 and a high average of 3.67 goals per match, indicating open, high-scoring games, but the hosts have managed only 2 wins and suffered 3 losses in their last 5 matches (1.2 points per match). Siarka’s key advantage is finishing quality and chance volume (6.33 SoT and 21% conversion versus Wisłoka’s 4.17 SoT and 11%), whereas Wisłoka holds the advantage in defensive stability and tendency to draw away (67% draws). Based on this, I expect a home win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The strongest signal comes from Wisłoka: their season BTTS rate is 75% versus just 18% for Siarka, with the league average at 56%. However, the last 5 matches show a partially opposite trend — Siarka posts 60% BTTS in their last 5 fixtures while Wisłoka is at 40%, suggesting the hosts have recently been more prone to conceding in open games. In chance creation terms, xG is 1.36 for Siarka and 1.49 for Wisłoka, and shots on target average 3.33 vs 4.17; both teams generate roughly 1.4 xG and Wisłoka produces higher-quality chances. Defensively, Siarka concedes 2.0 goals on average over the last 5 matches, whereas Wisłoka concedes 0.6 in the same period, so the hosts remain vulnerable to goals despite a lower season scoring rate (0.64 vs 1.42). Considering Wisłoka’s 75% season BTTS, Siarka’s 60% BTTS in the most recent 5 games, and the league BTTS level of 56%, I favor the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario, estimating probability at 70% vs 30% for 'No'.

I estimate expected goals using the average of one team’s attack and the other’s defense: xG for Siarka 1.36 versus xG against Wisłoka 1.25 → 1.31 expected goals for the home side; xG for Wisłoka 1.49 versus xG against Siarka 1.08 → 1.29 for the away side; total 2.60. With combined λ=2.60 the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 73%, which is supported by Wisłoka’s seasonal share of matches >1.5 at 75% (Siarka 36%). For the 2.5 line Poisson gives Over ≈48% and Under ≈52%, while seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 18% (Siarka) and 42% (Wisłoka), so this line is close to 50/50 and offers no strong edge. The 3.5 line yields Over ≈26% (Under ≈74%), matching seasonal Over 3.5 values: 9% for Siarka and 25% for Wisłoka. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — the Over at 1.5 is backed by an expected 2.60 goals and Wisłoka’s high share of matches >1.5 (75%).

At Half-Time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 78% of matches, the visitors in 56% — averaging roughly a 67% chance of an HT draw. In the second half the visitors hold a clear advantage: they score on average 0.89 goals after the break versus 0.22 for the hosts, won the second half in 44% of matches (hosts only 11%) and collected 17 points in second halves versus 5 points for Siarka. Over the full match Wisłoka also posts stronger offensive metrics: 1.42 goals per game versus 0.64 for Siarka, xG 1.49 vs 1.36 and shot conversion 11% vs 6%, which increases the probability of a visitor goal after the break. As a result the strongest signal is a Half-Time draw with a Full-Time away win (X/2) — we assign this scenario ~34%, followed by draw/draw (X/X) ~27% and home/home (1/1) ~11%.