Sidama Bunna vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics

Sidama Bunna has a clear advantage in home metrics: they are 1st in the home table, win 50% of home matches, record 67% clean sheets and concede just 0.44 goals while scoring 1.06 goals per game. Mebrat Hayl are 6th away, with only a 28% away win rate, averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.94 conceded, and failed to score in 44% of away fixtures. Form differentials are significant: Sidama in the last 5 matches have 4 wins and 1 draw with a goal record of 8:2 (1.6 scored/0.4 conceded) and 2.6 points per game, whereas Mebrat in the last 5 have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with a 5:5 record (1.0/1.0) and 1.2 PPG. In quality of chances the hosts also edge it: average xG for Sidama at home is 1.2 versus 1.15 xG for Mebrat away, shots on target 2.94 vs 2.17 and a higher conversion rate 14% vs 12%. Considering the better defense (0.44 vs 0.94 goals conceded), higher clean sheet percentage (67% vs 39%) and markedly superior last-5 form (2.6 vs 1.2 PPG), I predict a home win and estimate its probability at around 65% (draw 20%, away win 15%).

Both teams have low seasonal BTTS rates: Sidama Bunna 37% and Mebrat Hayl 39%, averaging 38%, which suggests BTTS occurs in only about 4 out of 10 matches. The hosts boast a strong defense — clean sheet expected in 53% of matches and conceding 0.47 goals per game versus 0.94 for the visitors — so Sidama frequently keeps opponents off the scoresheet. Although Mebrat Hayl recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, Sidama had BTTS in only 40% of those meetings and scored 8 while conceding 2 across their last five (1.6 and 0.4 per game), which weakens the away signal. Additionally, xG shows both teams generate around 1.04 and 1.15 xG per match but actually score only 0.84 and 0.83 goals, indicating poor finishing; the league is also low-scoring with an average of 1.79 goals per game. Based on this, the No (at least one team fails to score) scenario is more likely than BTTS - Yes.

Data analysis indicates a low-intensity match: seasonal average goals scored are 0.84 (Sidama) and 0.83 (Mebrat), totaling 1.67 goals per game, below the league average of 1.79. xG suggests slightly higher potential (1.04 for Sidama and 1.15 for Mebrat), but actual goal figures are lower, and the share of Over 2.5 matches is limited (21% home, 33% away). In the last 5 matches Sidama averaged 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, while Mebrat averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded with a high BTTS rate of 80%, which partially increases the risk of isolated high-scoring results but does not reverse the season-long low Over 2.5 trend. The expected goals model gives 1.07 for the home side and 0.99 for the away side (sum 2.06), translating to roughly a 61% chance of at least 2 goals, about 34% for at least 3 goals and around 15% for 4 or more; this favors the Under side. Additionally, the share of matches Over 3.5 is low (11% Sidama, 6% Mebrat), therefore I recommend Under 3.5 as the best single line to play.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Sidama were level at the break in 74% of their matches this season, scoring an average of 0.21 goals and conceding only 0.05 by half-time, while the visitors are level at the break in 56% of their games. In the last 5 rounds the home side have shown clear form — winning 4 of 5 (80% wins) and leading at the break in 80% of those matches, and over their last 5 fixtures Sidama score on average 1.6 goals compared to 1.0 for the visitors. After the interval the minute-by-minute statistics and second-half record favor the hosts: Sidama have scored 6 goals in minutes 46–60 (visitors 3) and have a positive second-half goal difference of +4 versus −4 for the away team. The visitors lose 44% of their matches this season and concede an average of 0.94 goals per game, with similar xG figures (1.04 vs 1.15), so the strongest signal from the data is a half-time draw followed by a home win after the break (X/1).