SJK vs KuPS: match statistics

KuPS is the favorite: they sit 1st in the table vs 10th-placed SJK, have 27 goals this season vs SJK’s 18, and a higher finishing efficiency — 10% vs 8%. In the last 5 matches KuPS scored 14 goals and won 4 of 5, while SJK scored 7 goals and recorded 1 win, reflected also in the five-match points average: 2.4 for KuPS vs 1.0 for SJK. The visitors average 1.71 goals per game and concede 1.00 on the road, hosts score 1.43 and concede 1.29 at home; average xG are 1.98 for KuPS vs 1.94 for SJK, suggesting better quality of created chances by KuPS. KuPS averages 6.29 shots on target per match with 61% possession, SJK has 5.57 SoT and 54% possession, and both teams rarely fail to score (only 14% of matches without a goal), so active play and multiple goals can be expected. On this basis I predict a win for the visitors.

Statistical analysis shows a clear BTTS trend: season rates are 63% for SJK and 71% for KuPS (avg 67%), above the league level of 52%. In the last 5 matches SJK had BTTS in 80% of games and KuPS in 60%, with KuPS scoring 14 goals in those 5 matches (2.8 per game) versus SJK’s 7 goals (1.4), indicating the visitors’ attacking form. KuPS has higher xG (1.98 vs 1.77) and more shots on target (6.29 vs 5.25), while only 14% clean sheets compared to SJK’s 38%, so the visitors often concede. Both teams concede on average 1.4 goals in the last 5 matches, and seasonal goals conceded averages are 1.0 for each side, which further favors both teams scoring. Considering these specific figures (63%/71% BTTS, low KuPS clean sheet rate 14% and KuPS scoring form 2.8 g/m), I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of about 78%.

The xG-based model projects roughly 1.48 expected goals for SJK (xG_for 1.77 vs KuPS xG_against 1.19) and about 1.54 for KuPS (xG_for 1.98 vs SJK xG_against 1.10), totaling ~3.02 goals. Season-long metrics confirm a goal-prone tendency: SJK has 75% of matches >1.5 goals, KuPS 100%, and BTTS stands at 63% for SJK and 71% for KuPS, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. The 2.5 line is moderately supported — seasonally SJK has 50% and KuPS 43% of matches >2.5 (average 47%), but in the last 5 rounds over 2.5 was 60% for SJK and 80% for KuPS, so I assess Over 2.5 at roughly 60%. The 3.5 line has weak backing: seasonally Over 3.5 is only 25% (SJK) and 29% (KuPS), and the projected combined xG of 3.02 is below 3.5, so Under 3.5 holds a clear edge. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 — the combination of 75%/100% seasonal support and expected 3.02 goals provides high confidence in that pick.

SJK have led at the break in 50% of home matches and average 1.13 goals scored by half-time while conceding just 0.38, which strongly supports a home lead after 45 minutes. Over the full match the hosts have a 63% home win rate and average 2.25 points per game compared to KuPS’s 1.71, and the hosts’ shot conversion rate is 12% versus 10% for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of maintaining the lead. Conversely, KuPS generate higher xG (1.98 vs SJK’s 1.77) and score more goals after the break on average (KuPS 1.0 second-half goals vs 0.75 for SJK), so they have a realistic chance of a turnaround. Despite the visitors’ form (4 wins in their last 5, i.e. 80%), the season HT/FT statistics and the fact that SJK have not been losing at half-time (0% of cases) indicate the safest scenario is 1/1 — the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time.