SJK vs TPS: match statistics

I predict a home win (1) based on a clear advantage in quality of chances: SJK has home xG 1.92 versus TPS away xG 1.36, and averages 16.83 shots and 5.5 shots on target per game compared to 11 and 3.67 for the visitors. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 8 goals while the visitors scored only 5; although PPG over the last 5 is 1.0 for SJK and 1.4 for TPS, the away offensive efficiency for TPS is poor. SJK’s defense is, however, vulnerable — 21 goals conceded this season and an average of 1.33 goals conceded at home (9 conceded in the last 5), whereas TPS concede 13 goals this season but score only 0.67 goals on average away and fail to score in 50% of their away matches. Additionally, SJK controls the game at home (possession 56% vs 47%) and creates more chances, and TPS have no away wins (win% 0), which increases the home side’s probability. Considering SJK’s superior xG and shot volume and TPS’s weak away efficiency, I estimate probabilities of 55% for SJK, 30% for a draw and 15% for a TPS win.

SJK has 57% BTTS matches this season and 100% BTTS in the last 5 fixtures (5/5), while TPS records 50% for the season and 40% in the last 5 (2/5), which short-term favors the "both teams to score" scenario. At home SJK averages 1.57 goals with xG 1.42 and 5.0 shots on target, whereas TPS away averages 0.67 goals with xG 1.36 and 3.67 shots on target, so both teams create chances (xG 1.42 vs 1.36). Defensively SJK concedes on average 1.8 goals in the last 5 matches (9 conceded), and TPS 1.0 goal (5 conceded), increasing the likelihood of SJK conceding. The league has 54% BTTS matches with an average of 2.67 goals per game, and additionally SJK has 43% clean sheets at home versus 17% for TPS away, so a shutout for one team looks less likely; therefore, based on the above numbers I give 66% for "yes" and 34% for "no".

Estimated xG is 1.35 for SJK and 1.57 for TPS (total 2.92 goals), calculated as the average of SJK’s attacking xG (1.42) vs the away defense (1.27) and TPS’s attacking xG (1.36) vs the home defense (1.77). With a Poisson distribution μ=2.92 the probability of more than 1.5 goals is about 79% (1 − P(≤1) ≈ 0.79), over 2.5 goals about 56%, and over 3.5 about 34%. Seasonal stats support the over: SJK has 71% of matches with over 1.5 goals, TPS 50%, and in the last 5 matches SJK averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded (total 3.4), while TPS averaged 2.0 goals per match in their last 5. Additionally SJK registers more shots on target (5.0 vs 3.67) and has a higher conversion rate (14% vs 6%), so the strongest signal is an over bet at the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1) — I assign this a 33% probability. SJK were level at the break in 43% of matches, and TPS in 67%, which strongly increases the likelihood of a lead at the break being a draw. Over the full match the home side dominate: SJK win 71% of home games and score on average 1.57 goals per match versus TPS’s 0.67, with SJK’s shot conversion rate at 14% compared to the opponents’ 6%. Additionally, SJK have a clear advantage after the break — averaging 1.14 goals in the second half, 100% of matches with at least one goal after Half-Time, plus 4 goals in the 46–60 minute window and 4 goals in 76–90 minutes — therefore I expect the home team to turn the game around after the break. As a result X/1 is the strongest signal, while scenarios 1/1 (25%) and 2/1 (14%) are less likely.