Slaven Koprivnica vs Hajduk Split: match statistics

Hajduk Split is the favorite for this match: the visitors have scored 49 goals this season versus Slaven’s 38 and have 18 wins compared to the hosts’ 9. In their last 5 games Hajduk have won 4 of 5 and scored 13 goals, while Slaven have 2 wins and 5 goals in that period; on average Hajduk earn 2.4 points per match over the last five, Slaven 1.2. Defensively Hajduk hold a clear advantage — the visitors concede 0.93 goals away with 43% clean sheets, while Slaven concede 1.21 at home with 29% clean sheets; season totals 26 conceded vs 46. In chance quality Hajduk produce better xG (1.83 vs 1.67), more shots on target (5.21 vs 4.5), more attempts (15.36 vs 14.5), higher conversion (12% vs 10%) and greater possession (59% vs 52%). Considering the goal difference (+12 for Hajduk away vs +3 for Slaven at home), superior form and efficiency in chance creation, I predict a visitors’ victory.

I back BTTS - Yes (62%) because both teams show high expected goals: estimated xG around 1.55 for Slaven (derived from 1.90 and 1.21) and around 1.46 for Hajduk (derived from 1.83 and 1.09), so both sides generate above ~1.4 xG. Hajduk is in clear attacking form — 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 per match) and BTTS in 60% of those games, while Slaven has scored 5 goals in the last 5 (1.0 per match) and recorded BTTS in only 20%. Counterarguments are seasonal clean sheets and lower season BTTS: Slaven has 47% clean sheets at home and season BTTS 47%, Hajduk has 43% clean sheets and season BTTS 36% versus the league BTTS level of 55%, plus Hajduk has 29% of away matches without a goal. Shot and finishing data support both sides scoring — average shots on target 6.0 (Slaven) vs 5.21 (Hajduk), average shots 15.6 vs 15.36 and conversion 10% vs 12%. Considering xG ~1.5 for each team, Hajduk’s 13 goals in 5 matches and the fact Slaven conceded 6 goals in the last 5 (1.2 per match), the stronger signal is for BTTS = Yes, hence 62% vs 38%.

I estimate Slaven Koprivnica will generate ~1.56 xG (xG_for 1.90 correlated with opponent xG_against_away 1.21) and Hajduk Split ~1.46 xG (xG_for 1.83 versus xG_against_home 1.09), yielding ~3.02 total expected goals. That is above the league average of 2.73 and consistent with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: Slaven 87% and Hajduk 79%, therefore Over 1.5 looks highly likely. Last 5 matches form further supports the attack: Hajduk scored 13 goals in 5 games (2.6 per game), Slaven 5 goals (1.0), together averaging 3.6 goals in those periods, which increases the probability of Over 2.5. However, season-long Over 2.5 rates are moderate (47% for Slaven and 43% for Hajduk), so I assess Over 2.5 at ~60%, Over 3.5 at ~36%, while the strongest signal from the data remains Over 1.5 (~82%).

In 4 of Hajduk’s last 5 matches they held a lead at the break (80%), scoring an average of 1.4 first-half goals versus Slaven’s 0.33 first-half goals over the same period. In those five fixtures Hajduk won 80% of matches, while Slaven has a 40% win rate, indicating a clear away-side form advantage. After halftime Hajduk also performs better — average second-half points are 2.07 for the visitors versus 1.8 for the hosts, and the second-half win rate is 56% vs 47%. Nevertheless, Slaven posts a slightly higher xG (1.9 vs 1.83) and more shots on target (6.0 vs 5.21), which increases the chance of a draw or a turnaround. However, Hajduk’s dominance in first halves and stronger post-break results support an HT/FT scenario of the visitors leading at the break and winning at full-time (2/2), which I assign the highest probability (30%), with alternatives X/2 (20%) and X/X (10%).