Sloga Doboj vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics

I favor a home win (1) based on superior home metrics: Sloga concedes 1.19 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.19, while Radnik concedes 1.75 on the road and has xG 1.02. Both teams’ finishing is poor — Sloga scores 0.81 goals per home game, Radnik 0.75 away, and on-target shot rates are similar (3.0 vs 3.19), so I expect a low-scoring match. Sloga’s form is concerning — in the last 5 matches they have 1 win and 4 losses, conceding 13 goals (2.6 per game), whereas Radnik conceded 5 goals (1.0 per game) in those five fixtures and recorded 1 win and 1 draw. Despite the hosts’ recent poor run, they hold a statistical home advantage (won 38% of home matches versus Radnik’s just 6% away wins, and 31% clean sheets for Sloga vs 13% for Radnik), so I give the hosts a slightly higher chance. Estimated probabilities: 55% Sloga win, 30% draw, 15% Radnik win.

The strongest signal against BTTS is Sloga’s home profile: season BTTS rate only 18% with 53% clean sheets expected. Radnik away posts 44% BTTS and just 13% clean sheets, but their scoring averages are low — 0.75 goals per match vs Sloga’s 0.88. xG and defensive averages confirm Sloga’s edge: Sloga offensive xG 1.22 vs Radnik 1.02, while xG conceded Sloga 1.37 vs Radnik 1.61; seasonally Sloga concedes 0.76 goals per match, Radnik 1.75. However, Sloga’s last 5 home games show 13 goals conceded (2.6 per match) versus Radnik’s 5 (1.0), and recent BTTS 20% (Sloga) vs 40% (Radnik), which raises the risk of both teams scoring. Weighing Sloga’s season 53% clean sheets and only 18% BTTS against Radnik’s 44% BTTS, and the low scoring averages of both teams, I pick 'No' (No Goal) with a probability of 64% vs 36% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).

Based on xG the model projects about 1.42 goals for Sloga (attack xG 1.22 vs Radnik defense xG 1.61 => (1.22+1.61)/2=1.42) and about 1.20 for Radnik (1.02 vs 1.37 => 1.20), total expected goals ≈2.62. With this mean, a Poisson distribution yields probability Over 1.5 ≈74%, Over 2.5 ≈49% and Over 3.5 ≈27%. Seasonal rates paint a mixed picture: Over1.5 occurred in 47% of Sloga’s matches and 63% of Radnik’s (avg ~55%), while Over2.5 only in 29%/38% (avg ~33%), which weakens confidence on the 2.5 line. Additionally, Sloga conceded 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 per match), and Radnik in this period has xG_for ≈0.99 and 3 scored goals, increasing the risk of further goals; therefore the strongest signal in the data is backing Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: Over).

At half-time a draw is most likely — Sloga were level at the break in 9 matches (53%), while they led at half-time in only 5 matches (29%). The home side average 0.47 goals by half-time versus Radnik conceding 0.94 by half-time (scoredAVGHT_home 0.47 vs concededAVGHT_away 0.94), indicating that with a draw at the break Sloga are more likely to score after the interval. In the second half Sloga average 1.18 points and win 24% of second halves, whereas Radnik average 0.69 points and only 6% second-half wins (ppg_2hg_home 1.18 vs ppg_2hg_away 0.69; wins_2hg_percentage_home 24% vs 6%), so a half-time draw often turns into a home-side victory. Additionally, Sloga win 41% of home matches versus Radnik’s 6% away win rate (winPercentage_home 41% vs winPercentage_away 6%), and an xG of 1.22 versus 1.02 confirms the hosts’ offensive edge, hence the selection of draw at half-time and Sloga to win full-time (X/1).