Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo: match statistics

Sportivo San Lorenzo are in very poor form: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, losing 4 times and earning only 0.2 points per game. At home, the hosts average 0.50 goals, fail to score in 57% of matches and have won just 14% of games, while their home goal difference stands at -18. 2 de Mayo arrive on the back of a run of 4 wins and a draw, during which they scored 8 goals and conceded only 2. The visitors are more effective away from home, averaging 3.29 shots on target compared with 2.29 for the hosts, and they are also less likely to be held scoreless: 29% compared with 57%. Although both teams concede an average of 1.79 goals under these conditions, 2 de Mayo’s current form and significantly superior attacking output make them the clear side to back for the win.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No does not come from Sportivo San Lorenzo’s very poor recent scoring form: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. The hosts have failed to score in 33% of their season matches, and their seasonal average of 0.87 goals is lower than 2 de Mayo’s 0.93. However, 2 de Mayo are in very strong defensive form, conceding just 2 goals in their last five appearances, an average of 0.4, while recording 3 wins and 2 draws. Although the visitors have recently averaged 1.6 goals, their opponent has conceded 1.6 goals during this period, making the scenario in which 2 de Mayo score while San Lorenzo draw a blank more likely. The seasonal BTTS rates of 40% for the hosts and 50% for the visitors, compared with the league average of 53%, also support the outcome that at least one team will fail to score.

Sportivo San Lorenzo score an average of just 0.87 goals per season, and have managed only 1 goal in their last five matches, averaging 0.2 per game. 2 de Mayo are in significantly better form, averaging 1.6 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded over their last five matches, which limits the prospect of a high-scoring game for the home side. At the same time, the home team have had under 3.5 goals in 93% of their matches this season, while this outcome occurred in 79% of the visitors’ games. Both teams have an average xG of 1.10, but the home side’s low conversion rate of 8% and just 2.87 shots on target per match point to limited attacking potential. A projected total of 2.00 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet, as at least four goals would be required for it to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a 2 de Mayo win, as the visitors were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and subsequently won 4 of those 5 games overall. During this period, Sportivo San Lorenzo failed to score before half-time, were trailing at the break in 80% of their appearances, and scored just 0.2 goals per match. 2 de Mayo are in significantly better form, averaging 1.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game over their last five league fixtures, compared with 0.2 and 1.6 respectively for the hosts. A cautious opening is also supported by San Lorenzo’s season averages of just 0.33 goals scored and 0.27 conceded before half-time. However, after the interval, the visitors concede an average of as many as 1.21 goals, giving the hosts a limited but genuine chance of preserving the draw early on.