St. Mirren vs Aberdeen: match statistics

I predict a St. Mirren win. In the last 5 matches St. Mirren scored 6 and conceded 6, averaging 1.4 points per game; Aberdeen in their last 5 scored 3 and conceded 11, averaging 0.2 points per game. At home St. Mirren averages 3.87 shots on target and records xG 1.38 from 12.13 total shots, while Aberdeen away averages 2.56 shots on target, xG 1.11 and 10.56 shots per game, indicating higher quality chances for the hosts. Defensively St. Mirren concedes 1.07 goals per home game and has 47% clean sheets, whereas Aberdeen concedes 1.56 on the road and has only 25% clean sheets, giving the hosts a clear defensive edge. Both teams have low conversion rates (around 4% versus 5%) and a high share of goalless matches (60% versus 63%), so I expect an even but low-scoring game with a narrow St. Mirren advantage.

St. Mirren has a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% and BTTS in the last 5 matches of 80%, while Aberdeen's seasonal BTTS is only 19% but their last 5 matches show BTTS at 60%. St. Mirren averages 1.53 goals per match (xG 1.41) and 4.6 shots on target, whereas Aberdeen averages 0.5 goals (xG 1.11) with 2.56 shots on target and a low 5% conversion rate. Both defenses are vulnerable: Aberdeen concedes 1.56 goals on the season and as many as 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game), while St. Mirren concedes 1.4 goals on the season and 1.2 in the last 5, increasing the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Looking at defensive xG — Aberdeen’s defense allows 1.9 xG on average to opponents and St. Mirren’s defense 1.48 xG — this matchup indicates both sides create chances and there is a real probability of goals from both teams. Considering the strong home signal (60% season/80% last 5) and Aberdeen’s weak defense, despite Aberdeen failing to score in 63% of their seasonal matches, I assess BTTS at 65% vs 35% for 'No' and recommend the 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes) selection.

The xG model based on both teams' averages gives roughly 1.66 xG for St. Mirren (1.41 attack vs 1.90 Aberdeen defense) and 1.29 xG for Aberdeen (1.11 attack vs 1.48 home defense), totaling 2.95 expected goals. Seasonally St. Mirren have 80% of matches over 1.5 goals and Aberdeen 63%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have 60% of games over 2.5, which increases the likelihood of a multi-goal game. The hosts average 4.6 shots on target with a 12% conversion rate, while Aberdeen only have 2.56 on target and a 5% conversion, so St. Mirren appear more capable of converting chances. Although season Over 2.5 are 47% for the home side and 25% for the visitors (which limits confidence in the 2.5 line), the higher combined xG and recent form clearly favor exceeding the 1.5 threshold, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

St. Mirren has a clear offensive advantage: on average 1.53 goals per match versus Aberdeen’s 0.5, xG 1.41 vs 1.11 and 4.6 shots on target against 2.56, which supports their control of the game. The visitors are in poor form — in their last 5 matches Aberdeen have not won (0% wins) and lost 80% of fixtures, and away they lose 69% of this season’s matches, so their chances of a win are low. I expect a draw at half-time because the hosts led at the break in only 20% of matches, while a half-time draw occurs in 40% of their games; additionally Aberdeen score only 0.19 goals on average before the break, so the first half should be even. St. Mirren are stronger in the second half (on average 1.67 goals after the break and 87% of matches with at least one goal in the second half), while Aberdeen concede many goals after the break (6 goals in minutes 46–60 and 7 goals in 76–90), so I expect the hosts to decide the match after 90 minutes. The strongest scenario is X/1 (Half-Time/Full-Time: draw at the break, St. Mirren win) assessed here at 25%, the second is 1/1 at 22% — options with an Aberdeen win have a much lower combined probability due to their low 0.5 goals-per-game average and 5% shot efficiency.