St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg: match statistics
St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
St. Pauli played against Wolfsburg in Bundesliga (Germany). The game was played on May 16, 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Recent form
St. Pauli has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.20 points per game. Wolfsburg has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
St. Pauli scores 0.85 goals per game and allows 1.73. Wolfsburg scores 1.27 and allows 2.06. Games in this league average 3.22 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 55% of St. Pauli's games and 73% of Wolfsburg's. The Over 2.5 rates are 55% and 64%, compared with league averages of 62% for BTTS and 64% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Wolfsburg has the higher season xG average, 1.34 to 1.20 per game. St. Pauli takes 10.2 shots per game, while Wolfsburg takes 11.7.
First-half and second-half trends
St. Pauli leads at halftime in 18% of its games and scores 0.52 goals per game after halftime. Wolfsburg leads at halftime in 27% and scores 0.64 after halftime.
When the teams score
St. Pauli's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). For Wolfsburg, it is minutes 0-15 (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Bundesliga games average 3.22 goals. Both teams score in 62% of games, and 64% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Wolfsburg is the favorite based on the numbers: they have scored 42 goals this season versus St. Pauli’s 28 and possess higher shot efficiency (14% conversion away vs 9% for the hosts). In the last 5 matches the visitors scored 4 goals, have 1 win and average 1.0 point per game, while St. Pauli scored 3 goals, recorded no wins and average only 0.2 points per game. The hosts, however, create more chances at home (avg xG 1.31, 10.63 shots and 4.31 shots on target) but convert poorly (avg 1.0 goal per game and 38% of matches without a goal). Defensively both teams are vulnerable — St. Pauli concedes 1.75 goals per home game, Wolfsburg 2.25 on the road — yet in the last 5 fixtures the visitors have conceded only 5 goals (1.0 per game) versus 12 (2.4 per game) for the hosts. Considering the season goal totals (42 vs 28), superior efficiency (14% vs 9%) and recent form (1.0 vs 0.2 pts), I give Wolfsburg the higher probability of winning, with a moderate chance of a draw or a home upset.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics strongly support BTTS: St. Pauli has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71%, Wolfsburg 75%, versus the league 62%. Both teams have only 6% clean sheets this season, meaning individually in 94% of matches they do not keep a clean sheet, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Over the long term St. Pauli concedes on average 1.88 goals per game, Wolfsburg 2.25; additionally in the last 5 matches St. Pauli concedes on average 2.4 goals, and Wolfsburg 1.0, so the hosts have been particularly susceptible to concessions recently. Offensively St. Pauli generates xG 1.59 and scores on average 1.24 goals (28 goals this season) with 13.65 shots and 4.71 on target, while Wolfsburg has xG 1.08 and averages 1.31 goals (42 goals) with 9.63 shots and 3.31 on target and a higher conversion rate 14% versus the hosts’ 9%. Additionally over 2.5 frequently occurs for them (65% and 63%), and the over + BTTS combination is 59% and 56%, therefore I recommend BTTS = Yes with probability 85% versus 15% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project the match total xG at approximately 3.26 (St. Pauli 1.84 vs Wolfsburg 1.42), based on home xG of 1.59 and Wolfsburg opponents’ xG of 2.08 ((1.59+2.08)/2=1.84). Both teams have a high percentage of both-teams-to-score games — St. Pauli 71% and Wolfsburg 75% — and season rates for matches over 2.5 goals of 65% for the home side and 63% for the visitors, which supports a multi-goal scenario. St. Pauli average 13.65 shots and 4.71 on target, Wolfsburg 9.63 and 3.31; with conversion rates of 14% for Wolfsburg vs 9% for St. Pauli this raises the likelihood of away goals and a higher overall score. In their last 5 matches St. Pauli have conceded 12 goals and Wolfsburg 5, which further argues for more goals and an open contest. A distribution model with an expected total of 3.26 yields P(over1.5)≈84%, P(over2.5)≈64% and P(over3.5)≈41%, therefore the strongest signal is an Over 1.5 goals bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 2/2 (Wolfsburg leads at the break and wins), because Wolfsburg led at the break in 38% of their away matches, while St. Pauli led at home in only 18%. The visitors also have a better season points average (1.0 vs. the hosts’ 0.59) and win 25% of their away games compared to St. Pauli’s 12% home wins, which increases the chances of maintaining a lead after the break. Although St. Pauli generate more xG (1.59 vs. 1.08), their shot conversion rate is lower (9% vs. 14%), so created chances are converted less efficiently. Additionally, St. Pauli conceded 8 goals in minutes 31–45 and were trailing at half-time in 80% of their last 5 matches; second halves average 1.76–2.06 goals (home/away), which favors the visitors holding their lead.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| St. Pauli | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Wolfsburg is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / game - St. Pauli · 1 pts / game - Wolfsburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wolfsburg is 49% better for: goals scored per game.
0.85 goals / game - St. Pauli · 1.27 goals / game - Wolfsburg
St. Pauli is 19% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.73 goals / game - St. Pauli · 2.06 goals / game - Wolfsburg
St. Pauli scores in 61% of games (20 of 33 meczów), while Wolfsburg keeps a clean sheet in 6% (2 of 33 meczów).
Wolfsburg scores in 76% of games (25 of 33 meczów), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 15% (5 of 33 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - St. Pauli
Over / Under - Wolfsburg
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Wolfsburg is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.94 pts / game - St. Pauli · 1.21 pts / game - Wolfsburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 18% of games and wins 18%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Wolfsburg - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 18%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (19). Late-goal balance (76-90): -13 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
St. Pauli
Wolfsburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| St. Pauli | Liga | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.58 | 3.22 | ▲ 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 62% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 55% | 64% | • 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 21% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 82% | 86% | ▼ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from St. Pauli's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Wolfsburg. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?
The Bundesliga match finished St. Pauli 1:3 Wolfsburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?
St. Pauli score 0.85 goals per game on average and Wolfsburg 1.27. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 55% of St. Pauli's matches and 73% of Wolfsburg's.
What form are St. Pauli and Wolfsburg in?
Over the last 5 games St. Pauli have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Wolfsburg 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?
The statistical background for St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.