Stjarnan vs Fram: match statistics

Fram is the favorite in this matchup: they sit 3rd versus Stjarnan’s 9th and have 4 wins and 20 goals this season, while Stjarnan have 2 wins and 14 goals. Over the last 5 matches Fram’s superiority is clear — Fram scored 14 goals, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and an average of 2.0 points per game; Stjarnan scored 8 goals, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses and an average of 0.8 points. Defensively the visitors also perform better: Stjarnan concede 2.75 goals per home game and have 17 goals conceded this season, whereas Fram concede 2.0 goals away and 13 this season; the gap is confirmed by xG against 1.83 (Stjarnan) versus 1.34 (Fram). The hosts, however, create more high-quality chances at home — on average 7.25 shots on target and 17.25 shots overall with 56% possession and xG 2.10 — and have not had a goalless home match (0% of home games without a goal), which suggests an open, high-scoring game. Considering Fram’s better form (2.0 vs 0.8 points in the last 5), greater recent goal output (14 vs 8) and lower xG against, I tip the away win; estimated probabilities: home 20%, draw 20%, away 60%.

Data analysis strongly supports the BTTS - Yes scenario: Stjarnan has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and Fram 67%, with the last 5 matches showing 100% and 80% respectively, and a league BTTS rate of 74%. Offensively and defensively both sides present scoring arguments: Stjarnan averages 3.5 goals scored per match with 1.75 conceded, while Fram averages 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, indicating neither team is defensively airtight. This is corroborated by xG values: xG for Stjarnan 2.09 versus xG against Fram 1.34, and xG for Fram 2.11 versus xG against Stjarnan 1.33 — both teams hold a positive xG edge over the opponent’s defense. Additionally, Stjarnan averages 6.5 SOT per match with a 20% conversion rate (Fram 5.67 SOT and 11% conversion), and both teams have a seasonal clean sheet percentage of 0%, meaning neither has kept a clean sheet this season. Considering Stjarnan’s 100% BTTS, Fram’s 80% BTTS in the last 5, and the league 74% BTTS, I assign an 85% probability to BTTS - Yes and 15% to No Goal as a conservative alternative.

Calculations based on xG: Stjarnan’s attacking xG is 2.09 and Fram’s defensive xG is 1.34, yielding an expected goals for Stjarnan ≈1.72; similarly Fram’s attacking xG 2.11 vs Stjarnan’s defensive xG 1.33 gives Fram ≈1.72, totaling ≈3.44 goals. With lambda=3.44 the Poisson distribution implies about an 86% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and roughly 67% for more than 2.5 goals (Over 2.5). Seasonal stats confirm a scoring tendency: Stjarnan has 100% of matches Over 1.5 and Over 2.5, Fram 67% for those thresholds, and the league records 74% of matches above 2.5 as well as 74% BTTS. Additionally, Stjarnan averages 3.5 goals per game this season and has a conversion rate of 20% versus Fram’s 11%, with average shots 17.25 vs 18.0, which increases the likelihood that xG will convert into goals. Consequently I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 also has solid backing (~67%), while Over 3.5 is less certain (~45%).

Season-long metrics favor Stjarnan: the home side averages 3.5 goals per match versus Fram’s 2.0 and win 75% of games at their stadium, while Fram wins 33% of matches. At half-time Stjarnan led in 2 of 4 matches (50%) and averages 1.25 goals by the break with 0.5 conceded, whereas Fram scores 0.67 goals by half-time and concedes 1.33 on average, which increases the hosts’ chances of having the lead at the break. Despite a similar xG (2.09 versus 2.11), Stjarnan has clearly better finishing efficiency (20% vs 11%), so with comparable quality of chances the hosts convert situations into goals more often. Additionally Stjarnan are dangerous after the break (on average 2.25 second-half goals and 6 goals in minutes 76–90), therefore the most likely scenario is a lead at the break and a home win (1/1), although Fram’s good form in the last 5 matches (60% wins) also gives meaningful upside to X/1 and X/X scenarios.