Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon: match statistics

Stockport County sit 2nd and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while 16th-placed AFC Wimbledon have failed to win during that span. The hosts scored 9 goals and conceded just 2 in those games, whereas the visitors scored 2 and conceded 11, highlighting a clear difference in the teams’ current form. Stockport average 2.33 goals per match at home, while Wimbledon concede 2.5 on the road; moreover, the hosts have won 67% of their home matches, and the visitors have lost 67% of their away games. Stockport’s superior chance quality is reflected in their average home xG of 2.07, compared with Wimbledon’s away xG of 1.23, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Stockport’s defensive record: they keep a clean sheet in 67% of home matches and concede an average of 0.67 goals. AFC Wimbledon score an average of 0.83 goals away from home and have managed just 2 goals across their last 5 matches, limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. The hosts, meanwhile, have a good opportunity to score, as Wimbledon concede an average of 2.5 goals away from home and have let in 11 in their last 5 matches. Although Stockport score just 0.5 goals per home match on average, their tally of 9 goals in their last 5 games strengthens this scenario. BTTS - Yes has landed in only 17% of Stockport’s home matches, compared with 50% of Wimbledon’s away matches, so it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Stockport kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, while Wimbledon averaged just 0.83 goals away from home, limiting the visitors’ chances of pushing the total higher. On the other hand, Wimbledon conceded an average of 2.5 goals on the road, and Stockport scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, giving the hosts a clear chance to find the net. Despite this attacking advantage, none of Stockport’s home matches produced more than 3 goals, while that threshold was exceeded in just 33% of Wimbledon’s away matches. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick: it allows for a home win with 2 or 3 goals without requiring an equally effective response from the visitors.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Stockport County win at full-time. The hosts were level at the break in 50% of the matches covered by the data, and scored just 0.2 goals per match before half-time across their last five games, which argues against them taking an early lead. Their recent form after the break has been much stronger: they averaged 1.6 goals, while AFC Wimbledon scored none and conceded an average of 1.0. Stockport have won four of their last five matches, while Wimbledon have won none, so a half-time draw is more likely to turn into a home win than to hold through to full-time. Confidence in the pick is tempered by the fact that Wimbledon were trailing at half-time in 50% of the matches covered, making a home lead at the break a significant alternative.