Stockport County vs Peterborough United: match statistics

Stockport County holds a clear home advantage in both attacking efficiency and defense: they average 1.62 goals per home match versus 1.09 scored by Peterborough away, while hosts concede 1.1 goals at home compared to 1.59 for visitors on the road. The difference in chance quality is evident: Stockport records average xG 1.64 per home game versus 1.18 xG for Peterborough away, with xG against 1.22 for the hosts and 1.76 for the visitors, suggesting Peterborough creates fewer chances and is more frequently exposed to higher-quality attacks. The hosts average 14.1 shots (4.86 on target) at home with a conversion rate of around 11%, while the visitors average 10.27 shots (3.77 on target) away and have a higher share of goalless games: 18% versus 14% for Stockport. Recent form over the last five matches also favors the hosts: Stockport scored 8 goals in their last 5 games and averages 1.0 point per game (record 1-2-2), whereas Peterborough scored 5 goals and averages 0.4 points per game (record 0-2-3). Considering the xG advantage, higher average shots, lower home goals conceded and a positive home goal difference of +11 versus the visitors’ -11 on the road, I forecast a home victory.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 57% (Stockport) and 59% (Peterborough), both above the league average of 52%, and in the last 5 matches Peterborough has BTTS 100% while Stockport has 60%, strongly favoring a Goal/Goal scenario. Stockport at home averages 1.81 goals and records xG 1.50, while Peterborough concedes 1.59 goals on average and has xG against 1.76, so Stockport has a clear opportunity to score. Conversely, Peterborough averages 1.09 goals this season and 1.0 in the last 5 matches, and Stockport concedes 1.29 goals at home per game, providing the visitors with scoring chances. Additionally, low clean sheet expected percentages of 19% and 23% and average shots on target of 4.57 versus 3.77 indicate a high likelihood of goalmouth situations for both sides. Based on this I favor BTTS - Yes with a probability of 78% versus 22% for No.

Data indicate a match with an elevated probability of goals: Stockport scores 1.81 goals per game versus Peterborough’s 1.09, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least 0.5 goals. Season percentages for over 1.5 goals are 81% for Stockport and 82% for Peterborough, while over 2.5 are 57% and 55%, giving the strongest signal for Over 1.5 and a moderate signal for Over 2.5. From xG analysis: Stockport xG_for=1.50 versus Peterborough xG_against=1.76 yields an expected ~1.63 for the home side, and Peterborough xG_for=1.18 versus Stockport xG_against=1.35 yields an expected ~1.27 for the away side, totaling 2.90 goals (above the league average 2.6). Additionally BTTS is 57% (Stockport) and 59% (Peterborough), and in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred 60% and 100%, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. On this basis I recommend Over 1.5 as the preferred line with an edge, with a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (~56%).

Stockport holds a clear lead at the break: they average 0.81 goals in the first half versus Peterborough’s 0.36 and lead at the break in 38% of matches compared to the visitors’ 18%, so the most likely HT scenario is the home side leading. The full-time outcome also favors the hosts: seasonal goal averages 1.81 for Stockport versus 1.09 for Peterborough, points per game 1.38 vs 1.05 and home xG 1.50 against Peterborough’s average xG conceded of 1.76 — this indicates greater attacking strength and higher probability of a home victory. Regarding both teams scoring, both sides find the net in roughly 57–59% of matches this season, but both-teams-on-half-time occurrences are rare (14% and 18%), meaning that in the first half typically only one team scores; this reinforces the 1/1 scenario (home leading at half and winning). The second half is, however, more goal-prone — hosts average 1.76 goals after the break, visitors 1.55, and >0.5 goals in the second half occurs in 86% of cases, so there are moderate chances for a turnaround (X/1) and for a draw leading to 1/X. Additionally, Peterborough have not won in their last five matches (0% wins), while Stockport have a 20% win rate in their last five, which further strengthens the signal towards 1/1.