Sūduva vs Banga: match statistics

Sūduva sit 2nd in the table and win 53% of their home matches, while sixth-placed Banga win 44% of their away games. The strongest argument in favor of the hosts is their defense: at home, they concede an average of 0.47 goals and keep a clean sheet in 60% of matches, compared with Banga’s 0.75 goals conceded and 38% clean-sheet rate away from home. Sūduva score an average of 1.53 goals at home against an xG of 1.47, while Banga score 1.25 goals away from home against an xG of 1.51, suggesting that the visitors can create chances but are less clinical in front of goal. Confidence in the pick is tempered by recent form: the hosts have failed to win any of their last 5 matches, scoring just 2 goals and conceding 11, while the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5. Even so, Sūduva’s defensive strength at home makes them the more likely winners, although their 40% home draw rate leaves a significant chance of the points being shared.

In matches involving Sūduva and Banga, both teams scored in 38% of cases, below the league average of 47%. Each team failed to score in 38% of its matches, a strong indication in favor of a scenario where at least one team fails to find the net. Banga keeps a clean sheet in 38% of matches and concedes an average of 0.75 goals, so it could limit the hosts’ chances; Sūduva have scored just 0.4 goals per match across their last five fixtures. The visitors are not guaranteed to score either: they have averaged 0.8 goals over their last five matches, although Sūduva conceded 2.2 goals per match during that period. The recent defensive form and xG above 1.5 for both teams in their last five matches leave room for goals at both ends, but the frequency with which either side has failed to score supports BTTS - No. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 75% of both teams’ matches. Banga conceded an average of 0.75 goals per match, while Sūduva scored 1.38, tempering expectations for the home side’s attack. Both defenses have looked less solid over their last five matches, conceding 2.2 and 1.8 goals per game, respectively, so the risk of a higher-scoring game remains real. At the same time, the teams scored only 2 and 4 goals across those five matches, respectively, so their lack of finishing efficiency favors the 3.5 line over the 2.5 line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Banga were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 38% for Sūduva, while both teams averaged just 0.56 goals scored in the first half. Each side scored only 0.2 goals per match before half-time across their last five games, further pointing to a cautious opening. Banga have the edge in the final outcome, averaging 1.56 points per match against Sūduva’s 1.38, as well as a higher average xG: 1.51 versus 1.39. In their last five matches, the visitors averaged 0.6 goals after the break, while the hosts averaged 0.2, strengthening the case for Banga to come out on top in the second half. However, X/2 remains only a moderate favorite, as Banga have lost four of their last five matches and Sūduva have not won during that period.