Sūduva vs Hegelmann Litauen: match statistics

Sūduva is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd and have scored 29 goals while conceding 16 this season, whereas Hegelmann have 20 scored and 29 conceded (8th). At home Sūduva averages 1.45 goals and only 0.45 conceded per match, with average xG 1.50 vs xG conceded 1.27 and 64% of matches kept as clean sheets, indicating a solid defense. Hegelmann on the road score 0.78 on average and concede 1.89, have xG 1.02 vs xG conceded 1.54, only 2 shots on target per game and 11% clean sheets, so they struggle to create and secure play. The form gap confirms the home advantage: in the last 5 matches Sūduva scored 6 goals, won 3 and drew 2 (2.2 points per game), while Hegelmann scored 3 goals, failed to win any of the five and average just 0.6 points per game; additionally Hegelmann conceded 8 goals in those five fixtures versus 3 for Sūduva. In light of these figures I predict a home win, mainly due to superior finishing (1.45 vs 0.78), defense (0.45 vs 1.89) and quality of chances (12.18 vs 8.89 shots and 4.09 vs 2 on target).

I back BTTS - Yes because Sūduva has a seasonal BTTS rate of 73% and Hegelmann 56%, both clearly above the league average of 49%. Hegelmann concedes 1.89 goals per game on average and has 29 goals conceded this season, while Sūduva scores 1.18 goals seasonally and has an xG of 1.29, giving the hosts a realistic chance to score. The visitors, however, have a low away scoring average of 0.78 (0.6 in the last 5), but Sūduva is not an impenetrable defense — seasonal clean sheets are only 18% and they concede 1.09 goals per match on average — so Hegelmann has a real chance to score. In the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60%, and shot-on-target stats 3.82 (Sūduva) vs 2.0 (Hegelmann) as well as Hegelmann’s xG against 1.54 confirm that scoring opportunities will come from both sides. Considering the 73% vs 56% BTTS, Hegelmann’s high number of goals conceded (29, 1.89 per match) and the hosts’ only 18% clean sheets, the Both Teams To Score scenario looks stronger, hence the recommendation: Yes.

I project approximately 1.54 goals for Sūduva and 1.12 for Hegelmann, totaling 2.66 goals. Support for Over 1.5 is strong: this season Sūduva has Over 1.5 in 82% of matches, Hegelmann in 89%, and the league average is 2.59 goals per game. xG analysis from the last 5 matches (Sūduva xG_for 1.57 vs Hegelmann xG_against 1.51 → forecast 1.54; Hegelmann xG_for 1.09 vs Sūduva xG_against 1.16 → 1.12) and the projected total of 2.66 also argue for a moderate edge on Over 2.5 (Hegelmann records Over 2.5 in 56% of games this season). Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal Over 3.5: 27% for Sūduva and 22% for Hegelmann), so the best and strongest data signal is to play the Over at the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X): Sūduva records a half-time draw in 64% of their matches, and their home games finish level in 73% of cases. Although the hosts have higher xG (1.29 vs 1.02) and more shots on target (3.82 vs 2.0), conversion is moderate (shot conversion 11% vs 9%), so the xG advantage rarely translates into a secure lead. The visitors concede on average 1.89 goals per match and 1.00 goal before half-time, while they score only 0.22 goals in the first half themselves, which further increases the chance of an even first half; Sūduva led at the break in 36% of matches and had no half-time losses (0%), demonstrating the hosts’ control over the first half. In the last 5 matches Sūduva have 60% wins with only 20% leads at half-time, therefore I assigned X/X 45% as the primary option, then 1/1 22% and X/1 15% as realistic alternatives.