Sumqayıt vs Qarabağ: match statistics

Qarabağ come into this match in significantly better form: over their last five games, they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat, scoring 6 goals and conceding only 2. Sumqayıt, by contrast, have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, while their record of 8 goals scored and 12 conceded highlights considerable instability, particularly in defense. The hosts lost their only home match so far 1:3, allowing their opponents an xG of 1.70 compared with their own xG of 1.31. Qarabağ won their only league match, scoring 3 goals and conceding 1, and their current form gives them a clear advantage against the team sitting in 11th place. Sumqayıt should create chances, as they average 7 shots and 4 on target at home, but their vulnerable defense and failure to keep a clean sheet support an away win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Qarabağ have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals in their last 5 matches, with only 2 goals conceded in total. At the same time, only 20% of Qarabağ’s last five games ended with both teams scoring, compared with the league average of 38% for BTTS. Sumqayıt averaged 1.6 goals scored during this period, but their xG was only 1.33, while their opponents are showing significantly better current defensive stability. The visitors should have opportunities to score, as Sumqayıt have conceded 12 goals in 5 matches—an average of 2.4 per game. The most likely scenario is therefore a Qarabağ victory with the hosts failing to score, rather than necessarily a goalless draw.

The available match data for the home side is very limited, so greater weight should be placed on their form in the last five matches: Sumqayıt averaged 1.6 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.4. Over the same period, Qarabağ scored 1.2 goals per game and allowed opponents just 0.4 goals, while their average attacking xG stood at a solid 1.80. Sumqayıt created lower-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.33, whereas Qarabağ’s defense restricted opponents to 1.51 xG and just 2 goals conceded in five matches. Although all of Sumqayıt’s last five matches produced at least three goals, this occurred in only 20% of Qarabağ’s matches, which clearly dampens the high-scoring game outlook. The estimated total of 2.35 goals suggests that Under 3.5 goals is the most reliable option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Qarabağ win, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Sumqayıt. Both teams scored an average of 0.4 goals before half-time during this period, but the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal in the first half, compared with 0.4 for Qarabağ. The difference in full-time form clearly favors the visitors: Qarabağ won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, while Sumqayıt lost 4 of their last 5 and averaged just 0.6 points. After the break, Qarabağ conceded no goals in any of their last five appearances, whereas Sumqayıt conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the second half, further supporting the scenario of the visitors deciding the match after half-time.