Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils: match statistics

BFC Daugavpils head into this fixture in clearly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 3, while Super Nova have suffered 3 defeats and scored 6 goals. The visitors are also higher in the table, sitting 4th compared with the hosts in 6th, and have a superior season goal difference overall: 33 goals scored and 31 conceded, compared with Super Nova’s 26:37. Away from home, Daugavpils create more chances, averaging 12.27 shots and 4.55 shots on target per match, compared with their opponents’ 9.67 and 3.92 at home. The hosts concede as many as 2.00 goals per home match, with an xG against of 1.90, which should favor the visitors’ attack, whose average away xG stands at 1.48. Daugavpils’ weaker away record, including 36% draws, leaves some risk of the points being shared, but current form points to an away win.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as BFC Daugavpils have recorded BTTS in 82% of their matches and have averaged 2.2 goals across their last five games. Super Nova should have good conditions to find the net: their average xG stands at 1.63, while their opponents concede 1.68 xG and allow an average of 1.82 goals over the course of the season. The visitors also create chances worth 1.48 xG, almost identical to the 1.51 xG conceded by Super Nova. The risk to the pick is the hosts’ solid defense, with just 0.73 goals conceded per game this season and clean sheets kept in 40% of matches. However, Daugavpils’ high attacking efficiency in their recent run marginally tilts the prediction towards BTTS - Yes.

A projection of 2.54 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of 2–3 goals, but without strong grounds for exceeding four goals. Super Nova had fewer than 3.5 goals in 80% of its matches throughout the season, while its defense concedes just 0.73 goals per game on average and keeps a clean sheet in 40% of its appearances. BFC Daugavpils poses an attacking threat, scoring 1.45 goals on average and netting 11 goals in its last five matches, but has conceded only 3 goals over the same period. The xG figures—1.63 for the hosts and 1.48 for the visitors—support a goalscoring scenario, but do not suggest an open, four-goal game. Therefore, Under 3.5 has the highest probability, especially as only 20% of Super Nova’s matches and 45% of Daugavpils’ games finished above this line.

BFC Daugavpils are clearly stronger in terms of current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, while Super Nova have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The visitors have started their recent matches well, leading at the break in 40% of them and scoring an average of 0.6 goals before half-time; during this period, the hosts have managed only 0.2 first-half goals per match. Seasonal data does point to a cautious start, with the hosts drawing at half-time in 53% of their matches, but Daugavpils currently have a clearly better rhythm. After the break, the visitors have averaged 1.6 goals across their last five appearances and conceded just 0.2 goals, which strengthens the case for them to maintain their lead. The 2/2 HT/FT outcome is therefore marginally the strongest option, although the high probability of a draw at half-time remains the main risk to this scenario.