Supra du Québec vs Pacific FC: match statistics

Supra du Québec is the favorite (1) — their average home xG is 1.85 versus just 0.59 away xG for Pacific, with average shots 18 vs 7 and shots on target 5 vs 1.5, which translates into a much higher volume of quality chances. The visitors’ defense looks vulnerable: Pacific concedes 2.5 goals on average away and has 17 goals conceded this season, while Supra concede only 1.0 goal per home match and have a +1 goal differential at their stadium. Recent form also favors the hosts — Supra have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 points per game over that span, whereas Pacific have 4 goals and average 0.2 points per game in the last 5, with no wins this season (0 victories). Pacific’s only edge is a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 7% for Supra), but with just 1.5 on-target shots per away match this limits their real threat. Considering xG (1.85 vs 0.59), the shots advantage (18 vs 7) and better points per game in the last five (1.4 vs 0.2), I project a home win with roughly a 70% probability.

Seasonal indicators favor BTTS: Supra has BTTS at 67%, Pacific 50% vs a league average of 52%, which supports the scenario of both teams scoring. Additionally, both sides have 0% clean sheets this season, and average goals conceded are 2.0 for Supra and 2.5 for Pacific (Pacific have conceded 17 goals), strongly indicating regular goals allowed. Supra creates significantly more chances (xG 1.30 vs 0.59 for Pacific, 11.17 shots and 3.33 on target vs 7.0 and 1.5), so the home side has a realistic chance to score. Pacific, despite fewer chances, have higher finishing efficiency (14% conversion vs 9% for Supra) and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS at 60%, which further boosts the probability of goals at both ends. Based on this I pick 'BTTS - Yes' with a probability of 68% vs 32% for 'No'.

xG-based calculations give total expected goals of about 2.82: Supra du Québec ~1.59 goals (attacking xG 1.3 and xG against opponent 1.88) and Pacific FC ~1.23 goals (attacking xG 0.59 and xG against opponent 1.87). Seasonal stats support a goals-oriented outlook — Pacific FC has 100% of matches Over 2.5 goals, Supra 67%, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5 = 100%). In the last 5 matches Pacific conceded 12 goals (avg 2.4), and Supra scored 7 goals (avg 1.4), which further increases the risk of a higher scoreline. A pure Poisson model with λ=2.82 yields about 78% for Over 1.5, about 54% for Over 2.5 and about 32% for Over 3.5; however, taking into account the season-long 100% Pacific Over 2.5 and Supra 67%, the strongest betting signal is Over 2.5 (adjusted probability ~64%).

At half-time I expect a draw: the average first-half goals are only 0.17 for Supra du Québec and 0.5 for Pacific FC, and their seasonal first-half draw shares are 33% and 50% respectively. The vast majority of goals occur in the second half — 100% of matches for both teams have had at least one goal after the break, second-half goals average 2.33 (Supra) versus 3.0 (Pacific), and Supra scores on average 0.83 goals after the break compared to Pacific’s 0.5. Supra generates more quality chances: xG 1.3 versus 0.59, on average 11.17 shots versus 7.0 and 3.33 shots on target versus 1.5 for Pacific, which favors scoring after the break. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Supra averages 1.4 points per match with 2 wins, while Pacific has 0 wins and averages 0.2 points per match, so the most likely outcome is a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time (X/1).