Supra du Québec vs Vancouver FC: match statistics

Supra du Québec holds a slight edge heading into this match: at home they register an average xG of 1.7 and 51% possession, while Vancouver away posts xG 1.5 and 46% possession. In the last 5 matches Supra scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) versus Vancouver’s 10 goals (2.0 per game), but both teams concede frequently — Supra conceded 10 goals in five matches, Vancouver 8. Over the season Supra at home averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded with 16.17 shots per game (4.33 on target) and a 33% rate of blank matches, whereas Vancouver away averages 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded with 14.2 shots (4.6 on target) and 40% blank matches. Supra also has the better home record (33% wins vs Vancouver’s 20% away wins) and slightly more points in the last 5 matches (points per game 1.4 vs 1.2), which gives them the advantage in the home fixture; therefore I predict a home win, although I expect an open, high-scoring game.

The statistics strongly favor BTTS - Yes: seasonal rates are 43% for Supra du Québec and 60% for Vancouver FC, and in the last 5 matches Supra had BTTS in 100% of games while Vancouver in 80%. In chance-creation terms xG is 1.52 (Supra) versus 1.50 (Vancouver), and over the last 5 matches average xG is 1.67 and 1.40, showing both teams regularly generate over 1.4 xG per game. Defensively both sides are vulnerable: seasonally Supra concedes 1.0 goals, Vancouver 1.4, and in the last 5 Supra conceded 2.0 and Vancouver 1.6, so goal exchange is highly likely. Additionally Vancouver has 0% clean sheets this season, Supra only 14%, and the league BTTS rate is 59%; shots on target 4.43 versus 4.6 and conversion rates 10% versus 8% also support the both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at roughly 78% (No 22%) and recommend a "Yes" bet as the strongest signal.

I project 1.38 goals for CS Supra du Québec and 1.35 for Vancouver FC, total 2.73 goals — values computed as the average of each team’s xG and the opponent’s defensive xG ((1.52+1.23)/2 and (1.50+1.19)/2). With λ=2.73 the Poisson distribution yields ~76% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and ~51% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), while Over 3.5 is substantially less likely (~29%). Seasonal data support this: hosts had Over 1.5 in 71% of matches, visitors in 60%, and the league averages 2.87 goals per game; in the last 5 matches Supra averaged 2.2 goals, Vancouver 2.0, with Over 2.5 occurring in 80% and 100% of those runs respectively. Offensively the teams are comparable (xG 1.52 vs 1.50, shots 13.0 vs 14.2, shots on target 4.43 vs 4.6), which favors Over at lower lines but does not decisively indicate >3.5 goals. Consequently the strongest signal is backing Over 1.5 (≈76%), Over 2.5 is moderately favored (~51%), and Over 3.5 remains risky (~29%).

Supra du Québec has a clear seasonal edge: they average 1.43 points per match versus Vancouver’s 0.8 and record 43% wins compared to the visitors’ 20%, which favors the home side in the Full-Time result. Draws at Half-Time are frequent — Supra were level at the break in 57% of matches, Vancouver in 40% — and average goals by half are 0.86 (Supra) vs 0.60 (Vancouver) with average goals conceded by half 0.14 vs 0.20, so the first half should be low-scoring and prone to a draw. Both teams’ xG are practically identical (1.52 vs 1.50), but Supra have better shot conversion (10% vs 8%), which increases the hosts’ chance to break the deadlock after the break. Considering the points advantage and higher win percentage, if the Half-Time score is level the most likely outcome is Supra to win by Full-Time; therefore the strongest signal from the data is a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time (X/1).