Suzhou Dongwu vs Shanghai Jiading: match statistics

Shanghai Jiading sits 9th with a record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses and a goal difference of 14:14, while Suzhou Dongwu are 15th with only 2 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses and a 7:15 goal record. In the last five matches Shanghai scored 8 and conceded 5, averaging 2.0 points per game, whereas Suzhou scored 6 and conceded 11 in their last 5, only 0.8 points per game. At home Suzhou concedes on average 1.8 goals and scores 0.6 per match with an average xG for 1.36 and xG against 1.52, indicating poor conversion (home shot conversion 6%). Shanghai away average 1.17 goals per game with xG 0.99, 2.83 shots on target and a shot conversion of 16%, while defensively they concede only 1.0 goal per game and record 33% clean sheets on the road. Considering superior form (3 wins in last 5), higher attacking efficiency and more stable defense, I forecast an away win; I assign 60% chance to Shanghai victory, 25% to a draw and 15% to Suzhou win.

BTTS statistics favor the “yes” scenario: Suzhou has 60% of matches with goals from both sides this season, Shanghai 50%, and in the last 5 meetings both teams show 60% BTTS against a league average of 51%. Offensive-defensive analysis confirms this signal — Suzhou generates xG 1.45 per match, while Shanghai’s defense concedes xG 1.48 per match; additionally Shanghai scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 per match). Conversely, Suzhou concedes on average 1.6 goals this season and shipped 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per match), whereas Shanghai conceded only 5 goals in that period (1.0 per match), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Low clean sheet rates for Suzhou (20% vs 33% for Shanghai), higher home average shots (10.8 vs 7.5) and shots on target (3.2 vs 2.83) further support BTTS, hence a 66% rating for “yes” and 34% for “no”.

Based on xG I project 1.47 goals for Suzhou and 1.10 for Shanghai, totaling 2.57 expected goals (xG Suzhou 1.45 vs xG against Shanghai 1.48; xG Shanghai 0.99 vs xG against Suzhou 1.22). Both teams have a high share of matches with over 1.5 goals this season: Suzhou 80% and Shanghai 83%, averaging about 82%, hence a strong signal for Over 1.5. At the 2.5 line the signal is moderate — Suzhou has 60% of matches >2.5, Shanghai 50%, which translates to roughly a 56% probability for Over 2.5, while the league averages about 45% for such games. Additionally, Suzhou creates more chances (10.8 shots and 3.2 on target vs 7.5 shots and 2.83 on target for Shanghai), and in the last 5 matches Suzhou concedes on average 2.2 goals while Shanghai scores 1.6 per game — this increases the likelihood of Both Teams to Score (Suzhou 60%, Shanghai 50%). Therefore I pick Over at 1.5 as the strongest signal (est. 82% for Over 1.5), while Over 2.5 is assessed at 56% and Over 3.5 at 25%.

Statistical analysis indicates an advantage for the away team: the home side scores on average 1.4 goals per match with xG 1.45, while the away team scores 1.17 with xG 0.99; the home side concedes 1.6 goals on average, the away team 1.0. At half-time the home team scores on average 0.6 goals and were trailing at the break in 60% of their matches, whereas in the last 5 matches the away team were level at half-time in 40% and leading at the break in 20% of cases. Although the home team attempt more shots (10.8 vs 7.5) and have more shots on target (3.2 vs 2.83), the away team convert more efficiently (16% vs 13%) and are in better form — 60% wins in the last 5 matches versus 20% for the home side. In second halves of the last 5 matches the away team have a goal difference of +3 compared to 0 for the home team, and the average points in those matches are 2.4 for the away team and 0.8 for the home team, suggesting the away team will maintain or extend a lead after the break. Therefore the best signal is away leading at half-time and away winning at full-time (HT/FT 2/2, 29%), with a strong alternative of draw at half-time and away win at full-time (HT/FT X/2, 21%).