Tammeka vs Tallinna FC Flora: match statistics

I project a win for Tallinna FC Flora (2). The visitors generate significantly more chances: on average 15 shots and 2 shots on target per away match with xG 1.9, whereas Tammeka at home averages 4 shots, records no shots on target and has xG only 0.53. Flora also controls the game better in possession (68% vs 50%) and although they concede on average 2 goals away versus Tammeka conceding 1 at home, the advantage in chance creation (xG 1.9 vs 0.53) and shot volume gives Flora a tangible edge. In the last 5 matches both teams have 2 wins and average 1.2 points per game, but Tammeka struggles with efficiency at home — in 100% of home matches they failed to score, which limits their prospects. Based on this, I assess Flora’s probability at 60%, draw 20% and the home win 20%.

I forecast BTTS - Yes at 60% (vs 40% for No) because both teams create and concede scoring opportunities: Tammeka has xG_for 2.05 versus Flora’s 1.90, with xG_against 1.49 and 1.19 respectively, indicating an exchange of chances. In the last 5 matches Tammeka scored 8 and conceded 8 (avg 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded), while Flora scored 7 and conceded 7 (1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded), so both sides have been regularly finding the net and allowing goals in recent fixtures. The league also records a seasonal BTTS rate of 53% and an average of 3.4 goals per match, and shot stats show 4.0 shots on target for Tammeka versus 2.0 for Flora, which increases the likelihood of goals from both teams. Counter signals are the season-long 0% BTTS for both clubs and 50% clean sheets for Tammeka this season, but given the xG and form from the last 5 matches (home team 60% BTTS, away team 40% BTTS), the Yes variant appears stronger.

Based on xG, expected goals are approximately 1.62 for Tammeka ((2.05+1.19)/2) and 1.70 for Tallinna FC Flora ((1.90+1.49)/2), yielding a total of 3.32 goals. In the last 5 matches Tammeka averaged 1.6 goals, Flora 1.4 (3.0 combined), while the league averages 3.4 goals per game and 67% of matches finish Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, Tammeka averages 18 shots and 4 on target per match versus Flora’s 15 and 2, and the teams’ seasonal xG of 2.05 and 1.90 indicate a high volume of scoring opportunities. Season-long BTTS is 0% for both sides, but in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 60% of hosts’ games and 40% for guests, so goals from both sides are not excluded. Given the projected 3.32 goals and strong over-2.5 indicators (67% league rate and 60% form), the strongest signal is to play Over 2.5 goals.

Tammeka averages 1.5 goals per home match and 1.0 goals before the break, and led at the break in 50% of games (scoredAVGHT_home 1.0, leadingAtHTPercentage_home 50.0), which increases the likelihood of holding a lead after 45 minutes. Tallinna FC Flora away have seasonScoredAVG_away 0.0 with a 100% loss rate (losePercentage_away 100.0), a conversion rate of 0.0 and only 2 shots on target per game (shot_conversion_rate_away 0.0, shotsOnTargetAVG_away 2.0), so it is unlikely they will score before half-time. Tammeka generates higher xG (2.05 vs 1.90), more shots (18 vs 15) and more shots on target (4 vs 2), indicating superiority in chance creation and finishing. The last-five matches trend confirms the home advantage: Tammeka led at the break in 60% of games and scored 11 goals before half-time versus 7 for the visitors (last5_leadingAtHT_overall_home 60.0, last5_GoalsHT_overall_home 11.0). For these reasons the strongest signal is HT/FT 1/1 (43%), with alternatives X/1 (21%) and X/X (11%) as less likely variants.