Tapatío vs Cancún: match statistics
Tapatío vs Cancún: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tapatío played against Cancún in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on April 24, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Tapatío has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Cancún has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 2.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Tapatío scores 1.71 goals per game and allows 1.50. Cancún scores 1.70 and allows 0.93. Games in this league average 2.89 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 68% of Tapatío's games and 57% of Cancún's. The Over 2.5 rates are 71% and 53%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tapatío has the higher season xG average, 1.43 to 1.41 per game. Tapatío takes 12.1 shots per game, while Cancún takes 11.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Tapatío leads at halftime in 39% of its games and scores 0.86 goals per game after halftime. Cancún leads at halftime in 53% and scores 0.77 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tapatío's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (13 goals). For Cancún, it is minutes 31-45+ (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.89 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win (2). Cancún has 16 wins this season versus Tapatío’s 10, and in the last 5 matches has scored 11 goals and averaged 2.2 points per game, while the hosts have 8 goals in their last 5 and 1.2 PPG. Tapatío at home shows a strong attack — on average 2.14 goals, 13.64 shots and 5.0 shots on target per game (conversion 16%) and only 7% of matches without a goal, however Cancún away averages 1.4 goals with 9.73 shots (conversion 14%). Defensively the visitors concede 1.13 goals away versus 1.29 conceded by the hosts at home, and the overall goal record is 51-28 for Cancún vs 48-42 for Tapatío, giving the visitors an edge in defensive quality and results. Additionally xG shows 1.55 xG for Tapatío vs 1.17 xG for Cancún and 1.43 xG against Tapatío vs 2.03 xG against Cancún, yet the better form of the visitors (last 5: 3 wins and 2 draws) leads me to favor Cancún.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The "both teams to score" scenario looks more likely: Tapatío averages 2.0 goals at home, while Cancún scores 1.4 away; seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for the home side and 60% for the visitors. Over the last 5 matches the signal is even stronger — Tapatío has 80% BTTS and Cancún 100%, with average goals in those five games of 1.6 (Tapatío) and 2.2 (Cancún). The quality of chances confirms this picture: Tapatío generates xG 1.64 and averages 13.0 shots with 5.33 on target per match, while Cancún allows opponents xG 2.03 and averages 9.73 shots with 4.33 on target. Even though Tapatío records a relatively high clean sheet rate (40%) and a lower seasonal home goals-against average of 0.73, the high xG against Cancún (2.03) and the fact that the visitors have scored 11 and conceded 7 in their last 5 matches point toward goals at both ends. Therefore I assign 'BTTS: Yes' a 78% probability versus 22% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and goal analysis point to a goals-heavy match: attacking xG is 1.64 for Tapatío and 1.17 for Cancún, while xG against is 1.30 (Tapatío) and 2.03 (Cancún); averaging yields forecasted 1.84 goals for the home side and 1.23 for the away side (total 3.07). Hosts average 2.0 goals per game, visitors 1.4, and the percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 73% for Tapatío and 67% for Cancún — roughly 70% on average. In the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 100% of cases and scored 8 (Tapatío) and 11 (Cancún) goals respectively, boosting the probability of exceeding 2.5 to about 62%. The share of matches with both teams scoring is 53% (Tapatío) and 60% (Cancún), and in the last 5 fixtures it was 80% and 100%, so I expect BTTS. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest line to play: high seasonal baseline (73% and 67%), total xG of 3.07 and current form (last 5 matches 100% Over 2.5) favor this line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and Tapatío winning the match (1/1). The hosts led at half-time in 9 of their seasonal matches (60%) and score on average 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.87 for Cancún, which, together with an offensive advantage (xG 1.64 vs 1.17), supports their chances of taking a lead in the first half. Additionally, Tapatío averages 13 shots (5.33 on target) compared to the visitors’ 9.73 (4.33), and over the season scores 2.0 goals and concedes 0.73 per match while Cancún allows an average xG of 2.03 and concedes 1.13 goals per match, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining their lead and winning. Caution is advised, however, as Cancún are in good form over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 60%) and seasonal BTTS rates of 53% for the home team and 60% for the visitors indicate both teams often score, so certainty is not absolute.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tapatío | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Cancún is 83% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Tapatío · 2.2 pts / game - Cancún
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cancún is 61% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Tapatío · 0.93 goals / game - Cancún
Tapatío scores in 82% of games (23 of 28 meczów), while Cancún keeps a clean sheet in 33% (10 of 30 meczów).
Cancún scores in 83% of games (25 of 30 meczów), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 18% (5 of 28 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tapatío
Over / Under - Cancún
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cancún is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.46 pts / game - Tapatío · 2 pts / game - Cancún
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 39% of games and wins 36%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Cancún - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 53% of games and wins 53%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tapatío
Cancún
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tapatío | Liga | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.21 | 2.89 | ▼ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 56% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 54% | • 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 26% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 93% | 75% | ▼ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 81% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Tapatío's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses against Cancún. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tapatío vs Cancún?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tapatío 1:1 Cancún. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tapatío and Cancún?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tapatío won 0, Cancún won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tapatío vs Cancún?
Tapatío score 1.71 goals per game on average and Cancún 1.70. The Ascenso MX average is 2.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Tapatío's matches and 57% of Cancún's.
What form are Tapatío and Cancún in?
Over the last 5 games Tapatío have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Cancún 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tapatío vs Cancún?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.