Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tapatío played against Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on October 13, 2026. Venue: Estadio AKRON. Final score: 4:1.
Recent form
Tapatío has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Tepatitlán de Morelos has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Tapatío scores 1.73 goals per game and allows 1.73. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 0.82 and allows 2.73. Games in this league average 3.24 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 64% of Tapatío's games and 45% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's. The Over 2.5 rates are 64% and 64%, compared with league averages of 59% for BTTS and 61% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tapatío has the higher season xG average, 1.32 to 1.29 per game. Tapatío takes 11.4 shots per game, while Tepatitlán de Morelos takes 11.1.
First-half and second-half trends
Tapatío leads at halftime in 27% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Tepatitlán de Morelos leads at halftime in 27% and scores 0.45 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tapatío's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (5 goals). For Tepatitlán de Morelos, it is minutes 46-60 (4 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 3.24 goals. Both teams score in 59% of games, and 61% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tapatío are the favorites: they have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, while Tepatitlán de Morelos have lost all 4 of their away games so far. The hosts average 2 goals per match at home, whereas the visitors concede as many as 3.75 on the road. The gap in attacking efficiency is clear: Tepatitlán score just 0.25 goals per away match and have failed to find the net in 75% of those games. Chance quality also favors Tapatío: their home xG stands at 1.38, while their opponents' away xG is 1.11, against 2.07 xG conceded defensively. The hosts' recent form warrants some caution—they have managed just 1 win in 5 matches overall—but the visitors have lost 4 times over the same period and conceded 17 goals.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal against both teams scoring is the visitors’ poor finishing: they average just 0.25 goals away from home and have failed to score in 75% of those matches. Their away BTTS rate is 25%, compared with 50% for Tapatío in home matches. The hosts have a strong chance of scoring, as Tepatitlán concede an average of 3.75 goals away from home and have shipped 17 goals in their last five matches. There is still significant risk in backing BTTS - No: Tapatío concede an average of 2.33 goals at home, while the visitors have averaged 1.41 xG across their last five matches, pointing to chances to find the net. Even so, Tepatitlán’s poor away scoring record makes it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 67% of Tapatío matches and 75% of Tepatitlán de Morelos matches. The visitors concede an average of 3.75 goals and have shipped 17 goals in their last five matches, giving the hosts a clear opportunity to score multiple times. Tapatío score an average of 1.17 goals, but their xG is 1.44, while the visitors’ xG conceded stands at 2.07. The forecast of 2.4 goals for the hosts and 0.9 for the visitors gives a total of 3.3, although the visitors’ attack, averaging just 0.25 goals, tempers confidence in higher lines. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is a stronger signal than Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Tapatío were level at the break in 3 of 6 matches, including 3 of their last 5. Both teams score few goals before the break, averaging 0.33 per match for the home side and 0.25 for the visitors. After the break, the advantage should shift to Tapatío, as Tepatitlán concede an average of 3.0 goals in second halves and have failed to score in any of their 4 matches so far, while the hosts average 0.83 goals. The case for a home win is also supported by their average xG of 1.44 compared with the visitors’ 1.11, and the fact that Tepatitlán have lost all 4 of their matches this season. However, Tapatío concede an average of 2.33 goals per match, so the HT/FT draw/home-win scenario carries some risk.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tapatío | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Tapatío · 0.8 pts / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tapatío is 111% better for: goals scored per game.
1.73 goals / game - Tapatío · 0.82 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tapatío is 58% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.73 goals / game - Tapatío · 2.73 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tapatío scores in 82% of games (9 of 11 games), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 11 games).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 45% of games (5 of 11 games), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tapatío
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tapatío is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / game - Tapatío · 1.18 pts / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 36%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 18%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 1.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -12 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tapatío
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tapatío | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.45 | 3.24 | ▲ 3.55 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 59% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 61% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 23% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 74% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | • 82% | 81% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Tepatitlán de MorelosYellow cardNeri Martínez
- Tepatitlán de MorelosYellow cardNeri Martínez
Head-to-head
Record from Tapatío's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses against Tepatitlán de Morelos. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tapatío 4:1 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tapatío and Tepatitlán de Morelos?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tapatío won 0, Tepatitlán de Morelos won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Tapatío score 1.73 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 0.82. The Ascenso MX average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Tapatío's matches and 45% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Tapatío and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Tapatío have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.