Teplice vs Sparta Praha: match statistics

Sparta is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table versus Teplice's 12th and have 17 wins this season compared to Teplice's 6. Sparta's superiority in attack and chance creation is evident — the visitors scored 56 goals this season (1.62 away) versus Teplice's 27 (1.08 at home), and average xG is 1.61 for Sparta away and 1.36 for Teplice at home. Sparta controls the game better: average possession 61% versus 43% for Teplice, 13.38 shots and 5.08 shots on target per away match vs 10.85/3.77 in Teplice's home matches, with conversion rates of 12% vs 10%. Defensively the visitors also perform better on the season — they concede 0.77 goals away on average versus Teplice's 1.15 at home, and clean sheets occur in 54% of Sparta's away games vs 46% of Teplice's home games; however Sparta conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches vs 7 for Teplice, indicating some vulnerability. Considering the advantage across key metrics (position, goals 56–27, xG 1.61–1.36, possession 61%–43%, shots on target 5.08–3.77, defense 0.77–1.15), I assign a 60% probability to a Sparta win, 25% to a draw and 15% to a home upset.

Teplice score on average 2.5 goals and concede 1.43 this season, with a seasonal BTTS rate of 79% (80% in the last 5 matches), indicating a strong tendency for the hosts to be involved in Goal/Goal games. Sparta score 1.62 and concede 0.77 seasonally, with 54% clean sheets, suggesting a solid defense; however, in the last 5 matches Sparta had BTTS 60% and conceded an average of 2.2 goals, indicating a temporary defensive dip. xG values confirm chances created by both sides: Teplice have xG_for 2.10 versus Sparta’s xG_against 1.18, and Sparta have xG_for 1.61 versus Teplice’s xG_against 1.11, so both teams generate opportunities exceeding the defensive averages of their opponents. Teplice average 17.86 shots (6.71 on target) versus Sparta’s 13.38 (5.08 on target) and have a higher conversion rate 14% vs 12%, which increases the likelihood that Sparta will concede. Considering Teplice’s 79% BTTS, Sparta’s 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches and the recent average goals conceded of 1.4 for Teplice and 2.2 for Sparta, a BTTS - Yes outcome appears more probable.

The model projects 1.64 xG for Teplice and 1.36 xG for Sparta, totaling 3.00 goals; the calculation incorporates Teplice’s attacking xG of 2.1 and Sparta’s average xG conceded on the road of 1.18. Seasonally Teplice score 2.5 goals at home on average and have 93% of matches Over 1.5, while Sparta average 1.62 goals away with 77% of matches Over 1.5, yielding a seasonal average of roughly 85% for Over 1.5. A Poisson approach for sum lambda=3.00 gives ~80% probability for Over 1.5 and ~58% for Over 2.5, so both historical rates (71%/62% Over 2.5 seasonally) and the model support Over. The counterargument is Teplice’s weaker form in the last 5 matches (averaging 1.0 goal and only 40% Over 2.5), whereas Sparta have recently been scoring 1.8 goals and have 80% of games Over 2.5, which partially offsets. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (I assess ~86% probability), Over 2.5 as moderately likely (~61%), and Over 3.5 as less likely (~35%).

Sparta led at the break in 46% of matches versus 36% for Teplice and has 85% clean sheets at half-time, suggesting the visitors more often hold the lead at the break. Teplice, however, dominate after the break: their second-half goals per game average is 1.64 versus Sparta’s 0.85, and the home side scored 23 goals in minutes 46–90 (7+7+9) versus Sparta’s 11 (3+5+3). Teplice create more chances (xG 2.10 vs 1.61, 17.86 shots per game vs 13.38) and won the second half in 71% of cases, which increases the probability of a turnaround. For these reasons my strongest signal is 2/1 (Sparta Half-Time, Teplice Full-Time); as alternatives, X/1 and 1/1 are more likely given the hosts’ high activity after the break.