Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al: match statistics
Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Termez Surkhon played against Mash'al in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The game was played on April 22, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Termez Surkhon has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Mash'al has 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses, with 0.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Termez Surkhon scores 0.75 goals per game and allows 1.38. Mash'al scores 0.25 and allows 1.88. Games in this league average 2.50 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 38% of Termez Surkhon's games and 25% of Mash'al's. The Over 2.5 rates are 38% and 38%, compared with league averages of 50% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Termez Surkhon has the higher season xG average, 1.16 to 1.09 per game. Termez Surkhon takes 11.0 shots per game, while Mash'al takes 8.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Termez Surkhon leads at halftime in 13% of its games and scores 0.38 goals per game after halftime. Mash'al leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.25 after halftime.
When the teams score
Termez Surkhon's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (2 goals). For Mash'al, it is minutes 61-75 (2 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Uzbekistan Super League games average 2.50 goals. Both teams score in 50% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 2 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Termez Surkhon (12th) has 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses this season, and in the last 5 matches records a 2-1-2 run with an average of 1.4 points per game. Mash'al (16th) has lost all 8 matches this season and all of their last 5 matches, collecting 0 points in that span. In attack the hosts have scored 6 goals this season (5 in the last 5) and average 0.75 goals per home game, while Mash'al have 2 goals this season (2 in the last 5) and average 0.5 goals away. Hosts display an average home xG of 1.29 versus the visitors' away xG of 0.86, and defensively Termez concedes 1.25 goals per home game (xG against 1.49) compared to Mash'al's 2.25 goals conceded away (xG against 2.05). Additionally Termez average 12.75 shots (2.25 on target) and 56% possession at home versus the visitors' 7 shots (2 on target) and 35% possession, so given the form advantage and superior defensive metrics I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS - No as more likely, assigning 65% to 'No' and 35% to 'Yes'. Termez Surkhon at home has a season goals-per-game of 0.0 and a season BTTS rate of 0.0%, with a shots-to-goal conversion of 0.0% despite a home xG of 1.31 and an average of 10.25 shots with 3.5 on target per match — they create chances but finishing is abysmal. Mash'al averages 0.5 goals away this season, scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 avg), has an away xG of 0.86 and averages 7.0 shots with 2.0 on target, so the visitors’ threat is limited. Although Mash'al concedes heavily — 2.25 goals against away on average and an xG against of 2.05 — the league-level BTTS is 50.0% with clean sheets at 55.0% and a home advantage of 8.0%, which together increase the likelihood of at least one clean sheet in the match. Considering the home team’s zero season goals average (0.0) and the visitors’ low away efficiency (0.5 season, 0.4 last 5), I regard 'No' as the stronger signal and assign it 65%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for both teams is approximately 2.80: Termez Surkhon has xG_for = 1.31, Mash'al xG_for = 0.86, and accounting for xG_against (away = 2.05, home = 1.38) yields expected goals of 1.68 for the home side and 1.12 for the visitors. A Poisson model with a mean of 2.80 gives about a 77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 53% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 31% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Season statistics show a divergence: Termez has 0% matches over 2.5, while Mash'al has 75%, but both teams have 100% of matches over 0.5, and the away side has 100% over 1.5, which supports a scenario of at least 2 goals. Considering the combined xG of 2.80, the home attacking activity (on average 10.25 shots and 3.5 on target) and the fact both teams regularly score, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 remains moderately likely.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at the break and a Termez Surkhon victory at full-time (X/1). A half-time draw appears plausible: in the last 5 matches the home side were level at the break in 2 of 5, and the visitors likewise in 2 of 5, while the home team led at half-time in only 1 of 5 and the visitors in 0 of 5. I expect Termez to dominate the second half because their xG per match is 1.31 versus Mash'al’s 0.86; they average 10.25 shots with 3.5 on target compared to the opponents’ 7.0 shots and 2.0 on target. In the last 5 matches the home side have won 2 of 5 while the visitors have not won. The visitors concede 2.25 goals per match on average and have an xG against of 2.05, which, combined with a form of 'lllll', increases the risk that Termez will decide the match in the second half. Therefore I back X/1 — a draw after 45 minutes but a home win by full-time (the strongest signal given xG 1.31 vs 0.86, 10.25 vs 7.0 shots and 2/5 vs 0/5 recent wins).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Termez Surkhon | Mash'al | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 19% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.09 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Termez Surkhon is 200% better for: goals scored per game.
0.75 goals / game - Termez Surkhon · 0.25 goals / game - Mash'al
Termez Surkhon is 36% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.38 goals / game - Termez Surkhon · 1.88 goals / game - Mash'al
Termez Surkhon scores in 50% of games (4 of 8 meczów), while Mash'al keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 8 meczów).
Mash'al scores in 25% of games (2 of 8 meczów), while Termez Surkhon keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Termez Surkhon
Over / Under - Mash'al
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Termez Surkhon is 200% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.75 pts / game - Termez Surkhon · 0.25 pts / game - Mash'al
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Termez Surkhon - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 13% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Mash'al - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Termez Surkhon
Mash'al
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Termez Surkhon | Liga | Mash'al | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.13 | 2.50 | ▼ 2.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 50% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 48% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 27% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 69% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 80% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Termez Surkhon's perspective: 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses against Mash'al. Games average 0.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Termez Surkhon 2:1 Mash'al. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Termez Surkhon and Mash'al?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Termez Surkhon won 0, Mash'al won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al?
Termez Surkhon score 0.75 goals per game on average and Mash'al 0.25. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Termez Surkhon's matches and 25% of Mash'al's.
What form are Termez Surkhon and Mash'al in?
Over the last 5 games Termez Surkhon have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Mash'al 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Termez Surkhon vs Mash'al?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.