Ternana vs Pianese: match statistics

Ternana is the favorite due to superiority in chance creation: at home their average xG is 1.92 versus Pianese’s 1.16 xG on the road, and average shots on target are 4.88 vs 2.88. The hosts have scored 43 goals this season and average 1.35 goals per home match (7 goals in the last 5), while Pianese have 34 goals this season and only 0.71 goals per away match (3 in the last 5). However, Pianese do not concede many goals away — just 0.65 per match on average — and they have 47% clean sheets and as much as 59% draws on the road, which significantly increases the risk of a shared point. Form over the last 5 also favors the hosts: Ternana (ddldw) average 1.2 points per match, Pianese (ddldd) 0.8 points per match. In summary, I back the home win due to superior xG, more shots on target and lower FTS (18% vs 47%), but given the visitors’ defensive profile I expect a cautious game and a relatively high probability of a draw.

Ternana has a season BTTS rate of 56% and BTTS occurred in all of their last 5 matches (100%), while Pianese has a season BTTS of 35% and only 40% in their last 5, giving a stronger “yes” signal from the home side. Ternana averages 1.22 goals per game with an xG of 1.39 (home xG in the last 5 = 1.8), whereas Pianese scores 0.71 per game with xG around 1.16 (last 5: 1.17), so the hosts have greater chance-creation potential. Pianese’s defense appears solid on the season (avg 0.65 goals conceded and 47% clean sheets), but their last 5 show xG against rising to 1.55 and actual concessions of 1.0 per game, which weakens prospects for another clean sheet. Additionally, Ternana produces more shots and shots on target (avg 11.06 and 4.0 vs 9.59 and 2.88 for Pianese) and has a higher conversion rate (11% vs 7%). Combining the xG advantage, the hosts’ BTTS form and Pianese’s weakening defensive resilience, I assign 62% to BTTS - Yes and 38% to No Goal.

I back Over 1.5 (70% vs 30%) because Ternana have 61% of home matches with more than 1.5 goals, and Pianese exceed 1.5 goals in 59% of their fixtures — a strong historical signal for at least two goals. Combined xG is 2.55 (1.39 + 1.16), and in the last 5 matches Ternana have an average xG of 1.8 and have scored 7 goals, while Pianese’s recent xG is 1.17 with 3 goals, which amplifies the hosts’ scoring potential. However, Pianese have kept 47% clean sheets and only 6% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, whereas Ternana have 44% of matches >2.5 and 28% >3.5 — this reduces the likelihood of very high scorelines. Considering the discrepancy between the seasonal goals total 1.93 (1.22 + 0.71) and the xG total 2.55, I set expected goals at 1.50 for Ternana and 0.95 for Pianese (total 2.45); a Poisson model for that total yields ~70% for Over 1.5, ~44% for Over 2.5 and ~23% for Over 3.5. Therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5, Over 2.5 is moderate, and Over 3.5 is unlikely.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1): home teams were level at the break in 67% of matches and away teams in 65%, so a draw HT is the dominant state. Away teams keep a clean sheet by half-time in 82% of fixtures (often 0-0), but home teams have a strong second half — in the last 5 matches homes scored >0.5 goals after the break in 100% of cases (5/5), whereas away teams did so in 60% (3/5). xG and shot metrics favor the home side: average home xG is 1.39 versus 1.16 for guests, and homes average 11.06 shots versus 9.59, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround in the second half. Over full-time homes won 33% of matches versus 24% for guests, and in the last 5 fixtures the away side recorded no wins (0%), therefore from a half-time draw a later home victory is more probable than an away one.