Teuta Durrës vs Tirana: match statistics

Recent form favors the visitors: Teuta in their last 5 matches has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, only 1 point — averaging 0.2 points per game — scoring 3 and conceding 8; Tirana in their last 5 has 3 wins and 2 draws, 11 points — averaging 2.2 points per game — 10 scored and 4 conceded. At home Teuta averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded, xG 1.20 vs xG against 0.96, 9.44 shots and 2.94 on target and 51% possession, while Tirana away averages 1.00 goal scored and 1.56 conceded, xG 1.03 vs xG against 1.78, 7.19 shots and 2.81 on target and 45% possession. Key advantages: Tirana has better efficiency (conversion rate 14% vs Teuta 11%) and form (10 goals in 5 matches), while Teuta has a more stable home defense (1.06 goals conceded on average and lower xG against 0.96) and higher possession. Considering Teuta’s high home draw rate (50% draws) and their poor run of 0–1–4 in the last 5 matches combined with Tirana’s attacking momentum, I expect an even game with a tilt toward a draw; probability distribution: draw 45%, away win 35%, home win 20%.

Main signals point to BTTS - Yes: Tirana has a season BTTS rate of 63% and as high as 80% in the last 5 matches, while Teuta has 41% seasonally and 40% in the last five. Tirana scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per match) and has recent xG of 1.4, whereas Teuta scored 3 goals in the same period (0.6 per match) with xG 1.22 — this shows Tirana is the primary source of goals, but Teuta is creating chances. Defensively, Teuta conceded on average 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches and 1.18 for the season, and Tirana concedes 1.56 per season (last 5: 0.8), suggesting both teams are susceptible to conceding. xG analysis also shows both sides have scoring potential: Teuta xG_for 1.22 versus Tirana xG_against 1.78 and Tirana xG_for 1.03 versus Teuta xG_against 1.52 — both pairs fall within ranges where goals on both sides are to be expected. Considering Tirana's strong signal (63%/80%) and the above xG and goals-conceded differences, I predict BTTS - Yes with a 60% probability versus 40% for No.

I calculate expected goals of 1.08 for Teuta and 1.24 for Tirana, totaling 2.32 goals. This projection uses xG: Teuta xG_for 1.22 and Tirana xG_for 1.03, and opponents’ defensive xG of 1.78 (Tirana) and 1.52 (Teuta), then I adjusted outputs by season conversion rates (Teuta 0.88/1.22≈0.72, Tirana 1.00/1.03≈0.97). Based on this, I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 goals at about 68% — season-long Over1.5 occurs 65% for home teams and 81% for away teams, and the combined xG=2.32 corresponds to roughly a 67% chance of at least 2 goals. The 2.5 line is closer to balanced: season Over2.5 is only 29% (Teuta) and 31% (Tirana), but in the last 5 matches the away side scored 10 goals (2.0 average) and have 60% Over2.5, so I assign Over2.5 a 44% probability versus 56% Under as a moderate signal. Over 3.5 remains unlikely (20%): season Over3.5 are 12% and 25%, and the expected 2.32 goals is far from a 4-goal threshold, hence an Under recommendation on that line.

The most likely scenario is 2/2 (Tirana leading at half-time and winning at full-time), because the visitors are in markedly better form: in their last 5 matches they have a 60% win rate and led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), whereas Teuta have 0% wins in their last 5 and only 20% leads at half-time. First-half statistics support this direction — Teuta average 0.29 goals scored by half-time and concede 0.65, while Tirana average 0.5 goals by half-time (0.5 vs 0.29). Additionally, in their last 5 matches Tirana score on average 2.0 goals per game versus Teuta’s 0.6 and have a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs the hosts’ 9%), which increases the chance of maintaining the lead. Seasonal xG slightly favors Teuta (xG 1.22 vs 1.03), but the difference is small, and the advantage in form and finishing efficiency argues for 2/2 (36% probability) with X/2 as an alternative (~10%).