The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics
The New Saints decisively dominate this encounter, sitting at the top of the table with an impressive record of 20 wins this season and a streak of 5 consecutive victories. The hosts demonstrate exceptional efficiency at home with an 85% win rate, averaging 3.23 goals scored per match while conceding only 0.85. Caernarfon Town, despite a decent league position, is clearly inferior in quality – their last 5 matches include just 1 win and they show poor form (1.2 points per match). The difference in possession (69% vs 52%), shots on target (7.31 vs 4.15), and xG (2.33 vs 1.47) clearly indicates the hosts' superiority. The goal difference (+31 for TNS in home matches compared to +7 for Caernarfon away) further confirms that The New Saints should secure a comfortable victory in this fixture.
The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
The New Saints played against Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The game was played on February 20, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
The New Saints has 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 3.00 points per game. Caernarfon Town has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
The New Saints scores 2.72 goals per game and allows 0.76. Caernarfon Town scores 1.80 and allows 1.40. Games in this league average 3.01 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 36% of The New Saints's games and 68% of Caernarfon Town's. The Over 2.5 rates are 64% and 56%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 55% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
The New Saints has the higher season xG average, 2.13 to 1.54 per game. The New Saints takes 16.7 shots per game, while Caernarfon Town takes 12.6.
First-half and second-half trends
The New Saints leads at halftime in 68% of its games and scores 1.56 goals per game after halftime. Caernarfon Town leads at halftime in 24% and scores 1.24 after halftime.
When the teams score
The New Saints's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (16 goals). For Caernarfon Town, it is minutes 76-90+ (12 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Welsh Premier League games average 3.01 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 55% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The New Saints decisively dominate this encounter, sitting at the top of the table with an impressive record of 20 wins this season and a streak of 5 consecutive victories. The hosts demonstrate exceptional efficiency at home with an 85% win rate, averaging 3.23 goals scored per match while conceding only 0.85. Caernarfon Town, despite a decent league position, is clearly inferior in quality – their last 5 matches include just 1 win and they show poor form (1.2 points per match). The difference in possession (69% vs 52%), shots on target (7.31 vs 4.15), and xG (2.33 vs 1.47) clearly indicates the hosts' superiority. The goal difference (+31 for TNS in home matches compared to +7 for Caernarfon away) further confirms that The New Saints should secure a comfortable victory in this fixture.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
The New Saints is 150% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / game - The New Saints · 1.2 pts / game - Caernarfon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
The New Saints is 51% better for: goals scored per game.
2.72 goals / game - The New Saints · 1.8 goals / game - Caernarfon Town
The New Saints is 84% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.76 goals / game - The New Saints · 1.4 goals / game - Caernarfon Town
The New Saints scores in 92% of games (23 of 25 meczów), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 meczów).
Caernarfon Town scores in 80% of games (20 of 25 meczów), while The New Saints keeps a clean sheet in 60% (15 of 25 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - The New Saints
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
The New Saints is 107% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.24 pts / game - The New Saints · 1.08 pts / game - Caernarfon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
The New Saints - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 68% of games and wins 80%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 36%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| The New Saints | Liga | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.48 | 3.01 | ▲ 3.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 36% | 51% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 55% | • 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 60% | 29% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | • 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from The New Saints's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses against Caernarfon Town. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The Welsh Premier League match finished The New Saints 2:1 Caernarfon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between The New Saints and Caernarfon Town?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches The New Saints won 2, Caernarfon Town won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The New Saints score 2.72 goals per game on average and Caernarfon Town 1.80. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.01 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 36% of The New Saints's matches and 68% of Caernarfon Town's.
What form are The New Saints and Caernarfon Town in?
Over the last 5 games The New Saints have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Caernarfon Town 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?
The statistical background for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.