Thun vs Lausanne Sport: match statistics

Lausanne Sport are showing better current form: they have collected 7 points and scored 9 goals in their last five matches, while Thun have earned 4 points and conceded as many as 16 goals. The hosts lost their only home match so far, failed to score and conceded an average of 6 goals, whereas their opponents concede only 0.5 goals per away match. Thun’s defensive problems are further highlighted by an average xG against them of 2.69, clearly higher than the 1.65 recorded by Lausanne Sport away from home. The visitors are not particularly effective on the road, averaging 0.5 goals per match, but Thun have failed to keep a clean sheet and have a negative home goal difference of -6. Lausanne Sport’s superiority in terms of game organization, possession (50% compared with 40%) and current form points to a home win, although the draw remains a realistic possibility due to the visitors’ limited attacking output away from home.

Thun have a very clear defensive problem: they have conceded an average of 3.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while their opponents created an average of 1.69 xG. Lausanne scored 1.8 goals per game during this period at 1.37 xG, indicating that they should have a realistic chance of finding the net against such a vulnerable home defense. Thun, in turn, averaged 2.4 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while Lausanne conceded 1.4 goals per game and allowed opponents 1.31 xG. BTTS - Yes is also supported by the fact that 60% of Thun’s last five matches featured goals from both teams, compared with a high league average of 71%. However, the signal is not conclusive, as Lausanne recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last five matches, so the advantage for a both-teams-to-score scenario remains moderate.

In their last 5 matches, Thun averaged 2.4 goals scored and conceded as many as 3.2, indicating a very open game profile. During the same period, Lausanne Sport averaged 1.8 goals scored, while their matches produced an average of 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals was recorded in all 5 of Thun’s last matches and in 60% of Lausanne Sport’s games, while the Swiss league averages as many as 3.76 goals per match. Caution with higher lines is warranted by Lausanne’s away data, with the team averaging just 0.5 goals scored and 100% of matches finishing Under 2.5 goals. Despite this, the hosts have kept no clean sheets, so Over 1.5 has the strongest statistical support and should be covered with a projected total of 3.00 goals.

A draw at half-time followed by a Lausanne Sport win is the most likely outcome, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches, while scoring just 0.4 goals in the first half. Thun do have a higher first-half average over their last five games, scoring 1.4 goals, but they also concede as many as 2.0 goals before the break, increasing the likelihood of an evenly matched and unstable opening period. After the break, Lausanne Sport average 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Thun score 1.0 and allow opponents 1.2 goals. The visitors have also posted a better second-half record, winning that period in 40% of their last five appearances compared with 20% for the hosts. Lausanne Sport's superior recent points form, averaging 1.4 points per match compared with Thun's 0.8, further supports the scenario of the visitors securing the result only in the second half.