Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua: match statistics

Shanghai Shenhua holds a clear statistical advantage: 7 goals scored this season versus 0 for Tianjin Teda, and on the road they average 12.5 shots and 4.5 shots on target per match compared to the hosts’ 7 shots and 2 shots on target. The difference in chance quality is also reflected in xG — Shanghai Shenhua’s average xG is 1.38 versus 0.85 for the hosts, indicating the visitors generate more high-value scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches Tianjin scored only 1 goal and conceded 12, with an average of 0.2 points per match; Shanghai Shenhua in the same period scored 7 and conceded 9, averaging 1.0 point per match. The hosts have failed to score in 100% of their home matches according to the data, while the visitors have 0% of away matches without a goal, so the probability of Tianjin breaking through offensively is low. Considering the higher number of shots (12.5 vs 7), more shots on target (4.5 vs 2), higher xG (1.38 vs 0.85) and better recent points average, I forecast an away win; suggested probabilities are 70% for Shanghai Shenhua win, 20% for draw and 10% for home win.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from season-long metrics: both teams have season BTTS at 100%, while the league average for both teams scoring is 56%. Tianjin shows potent attacking metrics — xG 2.57, an average of 21 shots and 11 shots on target per match, with a conversion rate of 24% — indicating consistent chance creation. Shanghai’s last 5 matches show xG_for 1.6 and 7 goals (1.4 per match), while Tianjin concedes heavily: 3.0 on the season and 2.4 across the last 5, leaving room for goals at both ends. Offsetting this is Tianjin’s low recent BTTS run (20% in last 5) versus 60% for Shanghai and some volatility in certain averages, which reduces forecast confidence. Considering the dominant season-long 100% BTTS for both sides, the home side’s offensive profile and the visitors’ 7 goals in 5, I rate the BTTS - Yes scenario as more likely (72% vs 28%).

Based on the home xG of 2.57 and the away xG conceded of 1.80 I project 2.19 expected goals for Tianjin Teda; for Shanghai Shenhua offensive xG of 1.38 and xG conceded to the home side of 1.23 yield 1.31 expected goals, totaling 3.50. This is 0.34 goals above the league average total of 3.16, although the hosts’ last 5 matches show a lower xG of 1.01, slightly dampening form. The hosts average 21 shots and 11 on target with a 24% conversion, while the visitors average 12.5 shots and 4.5 on target with an 8% conversion, and both teams have BTTS 100%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. With an expected 3.50, the Poisson model gives probabilities of over 1.5 ≈86%, over 2.5 ≈68% and over 3.5 ≈46%, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (86%), although Over 2.5 (68%) also appears justified.

The primary signal is home dominance at Half-Time: the hosts led at the break in 100% of home matches (1 out of 1) and average 3.0 goals by Half-Time versus 0.5 for the visitors. Additionally, the hosts generate more high-quality opportunities — xG 2.57 versus 1.38 for the visitors, 11.0 shots on target versus 4.5 and a conversion rate of 24% vs 8%, indicating greater finishing efficiency in front of goal. Full-match statistics also favor Tianjin: a seasonal home average of 5.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded with 100% home wins, while Shanghai has seasonal averages of 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 points per match. Although the hosts have not won in their last 5 matches (0% wins in the last 5), the xG and shots advantage at Half-Time suggest the lead at the break should hold through to Full-Time, hence the selection 1/1 as the most likely outcome.