Tigres UANL vs Toluca: match statistics
Tigres UANL vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tigres UANL played against Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The game was played on October 10, 2026. Venue: Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León. Final score: 3:2.
Recent form
Tigres UANL has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Toluca has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Tigres UANL scores 1.00 goals per game and allows 1.30. Toluca scores 2.30 and allows 1.20. Games in this league average 2.92 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Tigres UANL's games and 60% of Toluca's. The Over 2.5 rates are 40% and 70%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 53% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Toluca has the higher season xG average, 1.87 to 1.69 per game. Tigres UANL takes 16.0 shots per game, while Toluca takes 17.9.
First-half and second-half trends
Tigres UANL leads at halftime in 0% of its games and scores 0.60 goals per game after halftime. Toluca leads at halftime in 60% and scores 1.20 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tigres UANL's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (3 goals). For Toluca, it is minutes 16-30 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga MX games average 2.92 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 53% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 4 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca are slight favorites thanks to their more potent attack: they have scored 23 goals in 10 matches, compared with Tigres’ 10. In their last five games, the visitors have scored 13 times and won 3 matches, while the hosts have managed just 2 goals and 1 win. Toluca average 1.6 goals away from home, but Tigres concede only 0.75 goals per match at home and are unbeaten there, which limits the visitors’ advantage. The hosts also create chances worth an average of 1.8 xG at home, compared with Toluca’s 1.47 xG away, so their chances of winning remain genuine. Toluca’s current attacking form is the main factor behind the pick, although Tigres’ solid defense makes a draw a likely outcome as well.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Tigres’ recent scoring form: across 5 matches, the team averaged just 0.4 goals, and both teams scored in only 20% of its games. Toluca kept a clean sheet in 60% of its away matches, increasing the risk that the hosts fail to score. However, this is not a strong pick, as Tigres have an xG of 2.27 at home, while Toluca have averaged 2.6 goals in their last 5 matches. In addition, Tigres’ xG over their last 5 games is 1.5, suggesting their poor finishing could improve. Even so, the hosts’ current goalscoring record and Toluca’s away clean sheets give a slight edge to the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Tigres’ home matches have averaged 4.6 goals: the hosts scored 3.0 and conceded 1.6, with at least 2 goals scored in every game. Their average home xG is 2.27, while Toluca allow chances worth 1.59 xG away from home, which points to goals from the hosts. Toluca’s average of 2.6 goals over their last 5 matches supports the case for an away goal, although Tigres have conceded only 0.6 goals per game over that period. Tigres’ recent scoring record tempers expectations for higher lines: they scored just 0.4 goals across those same 5 matches, and none finished Over 2.5 goals. With a projected total of 3.0 goals, Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest pick, without assigning the same level of confidence to the 2.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal in favor of Tigres leading at the break is their home record: the hosts were ahead at half-time in all five matches analyzed and averaged 2.0 goals in the first half, while Toluca averaged just 0.2 goals before the break in away games. Tigres also create more chances at home, recording an average xG of 2.27 compared with Toluca’s 1.47 away from home, which supports the scenario of a lead being maintained until full-time. However, the 1/1 pick is not a strong conviction: Toluca lost none of the five away matches analyzed and won the second half in 80% of them. Recent overall form also warrants caution—Tigres were level at half-time in each of their last five matches, while Toluca averaged 1.4 goals after the break. Despite these caveats, Tigres’ exceptionally consistent starts at home make a home lead at half-time followed by a full-time win the most likely single scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tigres UANL | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Toluca is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Tigres UANL · 2 pts / game - Toluca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 130% better for: goals scored per game.
1 goals / game - Tigres UANL · 2.3 goals / game - Toluca
Toluca is 8% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.3 goals / game - Tigres UANL · 1.2 goals / game - Toluca
Tigres UANL scores in 70% of games (7 of 10 games), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 games).
Toluca scores in 90% of games (9 of 10 games), while Tigres UANL keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tigres UANL
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 163% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.8 pts / game - Tigres UANL · 2.1 pts / game - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tigres UANL - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 60% of games and wins 60%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tigres UANL
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Tigres UANL | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.30 | 2.92 | ▲ 3.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 53% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 24% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 67% | ▲ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 70% | 84% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Tigres UANL's perspective: 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Toluca. Games average 2.75 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Tigres UANL 3:2 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tigres UANL and Toluca?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Tigres UANL won 2, Toluca won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Tigres UANL score 1.00 goals per game on average and Toluca 2.30. The Liga MX average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Tigres UANL's matches and 60% of Toluca's.
What form are Tigres UANL and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Tigres UANL have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Toluca 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tigres UANL vs Toluca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.