Tijuana vs Cruz Azul: match statistics

Cruz Azul come into this match in clearly better form, winning 4 of their last 5 games and scoring 10 goals in the process, while Tijuana have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats over the same period, scoring just 4 goals. The visitors are particularly dangerous away from home: they average 3 goals per match, create chances worth 2.42 xG and attempt 20 shots, including 10 on target, compared with Tijuana’s 11.5 attempts and 5 on target at home. However, Tijuana remain unbeaten on home soil, have won both of their home matches so far and concede just 0.5 goals per game there, so they will not be easy opponents. Cruz Azul’s main concern is their defense, as they concede an average of 2 goals and 1.43 xG away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Nevertheless, the superior quality of their chances created and stronger recent form still point towards a narrow away win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the very high attacking productivity of both teams in the current season: Tijuana score an average of 2.0 goals, while Cruz Azul score 3.0, with average xG figures of 2.18 and 2.42 respectively. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and their seasonal rate of matches with goals scored by both sides stands at 100% each, pointing to clear defensive vulnerability. Cruz Azul remains a particularly strong argument for an away goal, having scored an average of 2.0 goals in their last five matches, generated 1.96 xG and recorded BTTS in 80% of games. The main risk to the pick is Tijuana, who scored only 0.8 goals and had a BTTS rate of 20% over the same period. However, their 1.24 xG, combined with the fact that Cruz Azul concede an average of 1.4 goals, still gives the hosts a realistic route to finding the net.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have recorded 100% of their matches with at least 2 goals in the current campaign and have failed to keep a clean sheet on every occasion. Cruz Azul generates an average of 2.42 xG and records 10 shots on target per match, while Tijuana allows opponents 1.27 xG. Tijuana has lowered its average goals scored to 0.8 over its last five matches, with only 20% of those games going Over 2.5 goals, making the 2.5 line significantly less safe. The visitors nevertheless remain offensively solid: they have averaged 2.0 goals in their last five matches, with 80% of those games finishing Over 2.5. The projected total of 2.88 goals, combined with Cruz Azul’s attacking edge, gives a high probability of surpassing the basic 1.5-goal threshold.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Cruz Azul win, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Tijuana. During this period, Cruz Azul averaged 0.6 goals before half-time and 1.4 afterwards, while Tijuana scored just 0.2 and 0.6 goals respectively. The visitors’ advantage is also evident in the full-time results: they won 80% of their last five matches, compared with the hosts’ 40% win rate, and averaged 2.0 goals per game versus 0.8. Cruz Azul’s attacking potential is further supported by an xG of 2.42 and 10 shots on target per match, compared with Tijuana’s 2.18 xG and 8 shots on target. A post-half-time turnaround is also supported by the fact that Cruz Azul scored in the second half in 80% of their recent matches, while the Mexican league produces goals significantly more often after the break than before it—89% compared with 70%.