Tirana vs Vllaznia Shkodër: match statistics

Season-long, Vllaznia looks stronger: they sit 2nd versus Tirana’s 9th, have 17 wins vs 9 and a goal difference of 40–26 compared to Tirana’s 32–45. However, over the last 5 matches Tirana clearly outperformed — scored 8 goals, with 3 wins and 2 draws (avg 2.2 points per match), while Vllaznia in the same period scored only 2 goals and averaged 0.8 points (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Looking at home/away splits: Tirana at home scores 0.88 goals and concedes 1.18 with home xG 1.22 and xG against 1.52, while Vllaznia away records 0.82 goals and concedes 0.94 with xG 1.43–1.12. Vllaznia attempts more shots (avg 12.18 vs 9.29) and has higher possession (50% vs 47%), but their conversion rate is lower (7% vs Tirana’s 9%), which explains their poor efficiency in recent matches. Considering Vllaznia’s season-long statistical superiority but Tirana’s good form in the last 5 and home advantage, I forecast a home win.

I back 'No' (BTTS - No) with a 60% probability. Key arguments: Tirana have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their matches this season and concede only 0.59 goals per game, while Vllaznia average just 0.82 goals per game, limiting the visitors’ chance to score. In the last 5 matches Vllaznia averaged 0.4 goals and BTTS occurred in only 20% of their games, whereas Tirana had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 and scored 8 while conceding 4, highlighting a form discrepancy. Counterpoint in xG: Tirana xG 1.76 vs Vllaznia xG 1.43 with xG against 1.17 and 1.12 – both teams create chances, but Vllaznia’s conversion rate is only 7% with 3.94 shots on target, which reduces their real scoring probability. Additionally, season BTTS rates of 35% (Tirana) and 41% (Vllaznia) are below the league average of 46% and the league clean sheet rate of 66% supports the 'No' selection as more likely.

xG analysis: Tirana has xG_for 1.76 while Vllaznia’s xG_against vs Tirana is 1.12 — their average yields roughly 1.44 expected goals; for Vllaznia xG_for 1.43 against Tirana’s xG_against 1.17 yields about 1.30. Weighting seasonal goals scored averages (Tirana 1.53, Vllaznia 0.82) and recent form in the last 5 matches (Tirana 1.6 goals in L5, Vllaznia 0.4), final forecasts are set at 1.34 for the home side and 1.00 for the away side, total 2.34. Assuming a Poisson distribution with mean 2.34 gives probabilities of >1.5 ≈68%, >2.5 ≈42% and >3.5 ≈21%. Additionally, Tirana averages 5.12 shots on target per game versus Vllaznia’s 3.94 and has a higher conversion rate 11% vs 7%, which favors more scoring opportunities for the hosts. Considering low historical over 2.5 rates (Tirana 29%, Vllaznia 24%), the most reliable option is Over 1.5 (line 1.5 — over), while the 2.5 line remains moderately risky.

Tirana holds a clear advantage: at home they win 76% of matches, and they led at the break in 12 games (71%), which strongly supports a home lead at 45 minutes. In the first half Tirana scores on average 0.94 goals, while Vllaznia only 0.29, and the hosts concede 0.24 goals on average by halftime versus 0.35 for the visitors — hence an expected 1-0 score at the break. Over the full match Tirana scores 1.53 goals per game compared to 0.82 for the visitors, has xG 1.76 vs 1.43, registers more shots on target (5.12 vs 3.94) and a higher conversion rate (11% vs 7%), which suggests maintenance of the advantage. Combining these figures (71% HT leads and 76% FT wins) a simple product yields roughly a 54% probability for the 1/1 scenario, therefore I select 1/1 as the strongest HT/FT signal.