Kazakhstan - Kazakhstan Premier LeagueAstana ArenaData current as of 06 August 2026

Tobol vs Kaisar: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Tobol vs Kaisar: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Tobol play Kaisar in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 9 August 2026. Venue: Astana Arena.

Current form

Tobol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Kaisar: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.

Goal statistics

Tobol scores 1.05 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Kaisar scores 0.75 and concedes 1.10. League average: 2.37 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Tobol 55%, Kaisar 55%. Over 2.5: Tobol 45%, Kaisar 30%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 44%.

xG, shots and style

Tobol has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.18. Tobol: 13.1 shots per match, Kaisar: 10.6.

Match halves

Tobol: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50. Kaisar: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.20.

Goals by minute

Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). Kaisar: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.37 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 44%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 67%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(1.83)
(3.40)
(3.85)

Pre-match profilewhat do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.05Goals scored / match0.75
TobolKaisar
1.4Goals conceded / match1.1
TobolKaisar
54%Average possession45%
TobolKaisar
4Shots on target / match3.6
TobolKaisar

Team statswho is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

13.05Shots per match10.6
TobolKaisar
4Shots on target3.6
TobolKaisar
8%Shot conversion7.1%
TobolKaisar
54%Possession45%
TobolKaisar
1.53xG for1.18
TobolKaisar
1.62xG against1.52
TobolKaisar

Shooting quality

Tobol: BalancedKaisar: Balanced
TobolKaisar
Accuracy (shots on target)31%34%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.120.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.260.21

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team formwho is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Tobol is 17% better for: last-5 form.

1.4 pts / match - Tobol · 1.2 pts / match - Kaisar

Tobol
LWDWL
Season result split
30% W20% R50% P
Season (W-D-L)
6-4-10
1.10 pts / match · goal difference -7
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
6-2-1
Last 5 at home
4-0-1
LWWWW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.0Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.51Opponent xG: 2.07BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 20%
Kaisar
WDLDD
Season result split
15% W55% R30% P
Season (W-D-L)
3-11-6
1.00 pts / match · goal difference -7
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-3-1
1.20 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
2-3-4
Last 5 away
2-2-1
DWWLD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 0.8Goals conceded: 0.8xG: 1.18Opponent xG: 1.41BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 20%

Goalshow do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Tobol is 40% better for: goals scored per match.

1.05 goals / match - Tobol · 0.75 goals / match - Kaisar

Kaisar is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.

1.4 goals / match - Tobol · 1.1 goals / match - Kaisar

Tobol scoring profile: very strong

Tobol scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Kaisar keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).

Kaisar scoring profile: strong

Kaisar scores in 55% of matches (11 of 20 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).

21Goals scored (season)15
TobolKaisar
28Goals conceded (season)22
TobolKaisar
2.45Average goals in match1.85
TobolKaisar
5Goals scored (last 5)4
TobolKaisar
5Goals conceded (last 5)4
TobolKaisar

How often they score at least...

70%1 goal55%
TobolKaisar
25%2 goals20%
TobolKaisar
10%3 goals0%
TobolKaisar
0%4 goals0%
TobolKaisar

How often they concede at least...

85%1 goal75%
TobolKaisar
40%2 goals25%
TobolKaisar
10%3 goals10%
TobolKaisar
5%4 goals0%
TobolKaisar

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

Goal patterns

30%BTTS at half-time20%
TobolKaisar
0%BTTS in both halves5%
TobolKaisar
10%Scored in both halves10%
TobolKaisar

BTTS and goal count

40%Min. 3 goals and BTTS25%
TobolKaisar
5%Min. 3 goals without BTTS5%
TobolKaisar
40%BTTS - last 560%
TobolKaisar

Goal count (Over/Under)how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

65%Min. 1 goal before half-time65%
TobolKaisar
30%Min. 2 goals before half-time30%
TobolKaisar
10%Min. 3 goals before half-time5%
TobolKaisar

2nd half

75%Min. 1 goal after half-time55%
TobolKaisar
35%Min. 2 goals after half-time20%
TobolKaisar
20%Min. 3 goals after half-time10%
TobolKaisar

Match halveswhen do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Kaisar is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.3 pts / match - Tobol · 1.4 pts / match - Kaisar

Tobol - half-time state
25% leading55% draw20% trailing
Kaisar - half-time state
30% leading50% draw20% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.3Points per match (1st half)1.4
TobolKaisar
0.55Goals scored (1st half)0.55
TobolKaisar
0.5Goals conceded (1st half)0.45
TobolKaisar
1.05Average goals (1st half)1
TobolKaisar
55%Clean sheet before half-time60%
TobolKaisar
50%No goal before half-time55%
TobolKaisar

After half-time (2nd half)

0.9Points per match (2nd half)0.8
TobolKaisar
0.5Goals scored (2nd half)0.2
TobolKaisar
0.9Goals conceded (2nd half)0.65
TobolKaisar
1.4Average goals (2nd half)0.85
TobolKaisar
40%Clean sheet after half-time55%
TobolKaisar
70%No goal after half-time80%
TobolKaisar

Tobol - second-half results

20% W30% R50% P
26
Half-time points
11
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference (1st half)
18
Second-half points
-8
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.30
PPG before half-time
Lead holding120%

Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Kaisar - second-half results

10% W50% R40% P
28
Half-time points
11
Half-time goals
+2
Goal difference (1st half)
16
Second-half points
-9
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.40
PPG before half-time
Lead holding50%

Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 15%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.2

Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Tobol - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.601.00
Goals scored / match0.60.4
Goals conceded / match0.40.6
Average goals in match1.01.0
1 goal80%60%
2 goals20%20%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet60%40%
No goal40%80%
Goal difference+1-1
Half-time: 40% leading - 40% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 40% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 3
Kaisar - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.001.60
Goals scored / match0.40.4
Goals conceded / match0.60.2
Average goals in match1.00.6
1 goal80%60%
2 goals20%0%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet40%80%
No goal60%60%
Goal difference-1+1
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minutewhen do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Tobol
ScoredConceded
5
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
8
61-75
1
5
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.

Kaisar
ScoredConceded
4
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
0
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
9
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicatorswhat do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.15
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.1 : 1.1
Estimated goal split
home : away
91%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
55%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-7%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
39%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
14%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 7 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Tobol

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.09
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.26
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+0.4 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.48
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.22
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
75%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
144%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.30
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.1
Late goals
5% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 24% come in the first quarter-hour.
5%

Kaisar

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.34
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.01
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+1.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.43
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.42
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
77%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
79%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.20
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.4
Late goals
7% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 27% come in the first quarter-hour.
7%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League contextis this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).

Teams vs league

TobolLigaKaisar
Average goals in match 2.452.37 1.85
Both teams scored 55%54% 55%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) 45%44% 30%
Clean sheets 15%28% 25%
Goal before half-time 65%65% 65%
Goal after half-time 75%70% 55%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.37
Average goals per match
54%
Both teams scored
44%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
28%
Clean sheets
1.40
Home goals / match
0.97
Away goals / match
+44%
Home attack advantage
+31%
Home defence advantage
+23%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
65%
1 goal
26%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
70%
1 goal
39%
2 goals
20%
3 goals
6%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (3): Tobol 1 - 1 - 1 Kaisar. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.

Kaisar
2 : 1
Tobol
FK Tobol Kostanay
1 : 0
FK Kaisar Kyzylorda
FK Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 1
FK Tobol Kostanay

FAQ

When do Tobol and Kaisar play?

Tobol face Kaisar on 9 August 2026 in Kazakhstan Premier League at Astana Arena. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Tobol and Kaisar?

In the last 3 head-to-head matches Tobol won 1, Kaisar won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs Kaisar?

Tobol score 1.05 goals per game on average and Kaisar 0.75. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.37 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Tobol's matches and 55% of Kaisar's.

What form are Tobol and Kaisar in?

Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Kaisar 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs Kaisar?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tobol vs Kaisar: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.