Toluca vs Atlas: match statistics
Toluca vs Atlas: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Toluca played against Atlas in Liga MX (Mexico). The game was played on September 12, 2026. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez. Final score: 5:2.
Recent form
Toluca has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Atlas has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Toluca scores 2.00 goals per game and allows 0.67. Atlas scores 1.43 and allows 1.29. Games in this league average 2.76 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's games and 57% of Atlas's. The Over 2.5 rates are 67% and 43%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 52% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Toluca has the higher season xG average, 1.97 to 1.27 per game. Toluca takes 18.7 shots per game, while Atlas takes 11.1.
First-half and second-half trends
Toluca leads at halftime in 67% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Atlas leads at halftime in 29% and scores 0.57 after halftime.
When the teams score
Toluca's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (3 goals). For Atlas, it is minutes 0-15 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga MX games average 2.76 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 52% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 2 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca head into the match on a run of 5 consecutive wins, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 1, while Atlas have scored 8 goals in their last five matches and suffered one defeat. At home, the hosts create significantly more, averaging 23 shots and 7.33 on target per match, with an xG of 2.47, compared with Atlas’s away figures of 10.33 shots, 5.67 on target and an xG of 1.36. Toluca score 2.67 goals per home game and dominate possession at 69%, which should allow them to control the flow of the match. However, Atlas are highly effective away from home, having won all 3 of their matches, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 0.67, so their chances of finding the net should not be underestimated. Nevertheless, Toluca’s superiority in the quality of chances created and their current form point to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The scenario in which both teams score is slightly more likely, as Atlas averages 2.0 goals away from home and has not recorded a single scoreless match throughout the season. Toluca has conceded an average of 1.75 goals at home, with opponents posting an average xG of 1.55, giving Atlas a solid basis to score despite the hosts’ excellent recent run. Meanwhile, Toluca has averaged 2.4 goals and generated 2.01 xG across its last five matches, while Atlas has conceded 1.2 goals per game over the same period, with an xG against of 1.81. The only argument against BTTS - Yes is that just 20% of Toluca’s last five matches produced this outcome, along with only 0.2 goals conceded per game. However, Atlas’s attacking numbers and defensive vulnerability provide slightly stronger support for the “Yes” option.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Toluca are in excellent form, having won their last five matches and scored a total of 12 goals, averaging 2.4 per game. During this period, the hosts created chances worth 2.01 xG, while Atlas allowed opponents 1.81 xG, which supports the expectation of a strong Toluca performance. However, Atlas average 2.0 goals scored away from home and register 5.67 shots on target per match, while Toluca’s season statistics show that they concede 1.75 goals at home. Despite the attacking potential of both sides, only 25% of Toluca’s matches and 33% of Atlas’s matches went over the 3.5-goal line, compared with a league average of 2.8. The strongest option therefore remains Under 3.5 goals, as the data points to a match finishing around 2-3 goals, without equally strong indications of four or more goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is Toluca leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts have won their last five fixtures, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.2. In those five matches, Toluca led at half-time in 60% of cases, never trailed, and conceded an average of 0.0 goals before the break. Atlas boasts three away wins and an average of 2.0 goals scored, but its xGA is as high as 1.78, compared with Toluca’s attacking xG of 1.21. After the break, the hosts’ current-form advantage is even more pronounced: they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, and have won the second half in all of their last five appearances. Atlas remains dangerous, which is why the draw at half-time and Toluca win scenario receives a substantial 25% probability, but the hosts’ stronger start makes the 1/1 pick the most likely outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Toluca is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Toluca · 1.4 pts / game - Atlas
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 40% better for: goals scored per game.
2 goals / game - Toluca · 1.43 goals / game - Atlas
Toluca is 93% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.67 goals / game - Toluca · 1.29 goals / game - Atlas
Toluca scores in 83% of games (5 of 6 games), while Atlas keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 games).
Atlas scores in 86% of games (6 of 7 games), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Atlas
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 63% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.33 pts / game - Toluca · 1.43 pts / game - Atlas
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 67% of games and wins 67%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Atlas - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 57%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Toluca
Atlas
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.67 | 2.76 | • 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 52% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 25% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 67% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | • 83% | 84% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Toluca's perspective: 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses against Atlas. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Atlas?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 5:2 Atlas. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Atlas?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Toluca won 0, Atlas won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca score 2.00 goals per game on average and Atlas 1.43. The Liga MX average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's matches and 57% of Atlas's.
What form are Toluca and Atlas in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Atlas 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Atlas?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Atlas — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.